The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Nominations: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Closes
Dec 8, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$8K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Sandra Hüller 90%

Next is Virginie Efira at 80%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Sandra Hüller
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Virginie Efira
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Virginie Efira
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$457
Trade this on Kalshi
Renate Reinsve
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Renate Reinsve
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$778
Trade this on Kalshi
Ruth Madeley
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ruth Madeley
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeon Do-yeon
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeon Do-yeon
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Léa Seydoux
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Léa Seydoux
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Daisy Edgar-Jones
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daisy Edgar-Jones
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
Carrie Coon
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carrie Coon
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Inde Navarrette
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mathilde Arcel
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mathilde Arcel
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$676
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Sandra Hüller
  • Virginie Efira
  • Renate Reinsve

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Nominations: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama". Sandra Hüller leads at 90%. Next is Virginie Efira at 80%. $8K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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