The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Nominations: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Closes
Dec 8, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Julianne Moore 92%

Next is Olivia Wilde at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Julianne Moore
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Julianne Moore
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Olivia Wilde
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Inde Navarrette
88.5%
Kalshi 88.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
88.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Zendaya
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Olivia Colman
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$410
Trade this on Kalshi
Marion Bailey
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marion Bailey
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$273
Trade this on Kalshi
Meryl Streep
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meryl Streep
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rosalind Eleazar
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rosalind Eleazar
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$266
Trade this on Kalshi
Natalie Portman
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Natalie Portman
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rachel McAdams
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rachel McAdams
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Anne Hathaway
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jodie Comer
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jodie Comer
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Julianne Moore
  • Olivia Wilde
  • Inde Navarrette

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Nominations: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy". Julianne Moore leads at 92%. Next is Olivia Wilde at 90%. $7K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More culture markets

See all culture markets