The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Nominations: Best Director

Closes
Dec 8, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$37K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Christopher Nolan 93.9%

Next is Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo at 89%. The venues differ most on Denis Villeneuve (Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 79%), a 31-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Christopher Nolan
93.9%
Polymarket 90.6%polled, 52s agoKalshi 95%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 93.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
90.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.5¢
Sell Yes
87.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 87.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 98¢.

Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Javier Calvo
87.5%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Calvo
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$646
Trade this on Polymarket
Javier Ambrossi
83%
Polymarket 83%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Ambrossi
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Polymarket
Martin McDonagh
75.8%
Polymarket 72%polled, 52s agoKalshi 79.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Martin McDonagh
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Martin McDonagh
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 70¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 75¢.

Denis VilleneuveArb
68.1%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 52s agoKalshi 79%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denis Villeneuve
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Denis Villeneuve
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 51¢ and selling on Kalshi at 62¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.

Nathan Fielder
57.8%
Polymarket 57.8%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 63.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $158 (1.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nathan Fielder
Last price
57.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63.1¢
Sell Yes
52.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$158 (1.58x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Olivia WildeArb
56.1%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 52s agoKalshi 79%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$615
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 53¢ and selling on Kalshi at 76¢ nets 2300 bps before fees.

Ryusuke Hamaguchi
37.5%
Polymarket 29%polled, 52s agoKalshi 47%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 30¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 30¢.

Jesse Eisenberg
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Eisenberg
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$618
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 21 more outcomes
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$668
Trade this on Kalshi
Cristian Mungiu
24.3%
Polymarket 20%polled, 52s agoKalshi 34%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cristian Mungiu
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cristian Mungiu
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$687
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 20¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 25¢.

Tony Gilroy
13.8%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, 52s agoKalshi 20%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tony Gilroy
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$589
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tony Gilroy
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Peter Farrelly
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peter Farrelly
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$227
Trade this on Polymarket
Alejandro González Iñárritu
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alejandro González Iñárritu
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$642
Trade this on Polymarket
Christopher Miller
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christopher Miller
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paweł Pawlikowski
9.7%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 52s agoKalshi 10%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paweł Pawlikowski
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paweł Pawlikowski
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Curry Barker
9.2%
Polymarket 9.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Curry Barker
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
8.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket
Phil Lord
8.8%
Polymarket 8.8%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 11.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $877 (8.77x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phil Lord
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.4¢
Sell Yes
6.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$877 (8.77x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
David Fincher
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Fincher
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
Na Hong-jin
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Na Hong-jin
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrew Haigh
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Haigh
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Polymarket
Beth de Araujo
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Beth de Araujo
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$911
Trade this on Polymarket
Danny Boyle
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danny Boyle
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Polymarket
Ben Affleck
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ben Affleck
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Janus Metz Pedersen
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Janus Metz Pedersen
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Polymarket
Aaron Sorkin
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Sorkin
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Polymarket
Steven Spielberg
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steven Spielberg
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
James Ashcroft
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Ashcroft
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$392
Trade this on Polymarket
Joel Coen
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joel Coen
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$436
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike Leigh
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Leigh
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Olivia Wilde on Polymarket at 53¢, sell on Kalshi at 76¢ (2300 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Christopher Nolan
  • Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo
  • Javier Calvo

Live prices for Christopher Nolan

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Nominations: Best Director". Christopher Nolan leads at 93.9%. Next is Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo at 89%. $37K has traded across 31 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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