The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Nominations: Best Motion Picture - Drama

Closes
Dec 8, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$141K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Odyssey 97.6%

Next is La Bola Negra at 93.6%. The venues differ most on All of a Sudden (Polymarket 37%, Kalshi 63%), a 26-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The Odyssey
97.6%
Polymarket 97.4%polled, 32s agoKalshi 98%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
97.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.1¢
Sell Yes
95.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 95.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 99¢.

La Bola NegraArb
93.6%
Polymarket 94.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 91%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
94.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 92¢ and selling on Polymarket at 93¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Wild Horse Nine
91.5%
Polymarket 91.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dune: Part Three
83.3%
Polymarket 86.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 80%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
86.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 86¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 90¢.

The Debut
77.5%
Polymarket 77.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Project Hail Mary
76.5%
Polymarket 76.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
76.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
You Can See Everything
72%
Polymarket 72%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Invite
58%
Polymarket 58%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
All of a SuddenArb
44.3%
Polymarket 37%polled, 32s agoKalshi 63%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$810
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 38¢ and selling on Kalshi at 49¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.

Fjord
38.7%
Polymarket 35%polled, 32s agoKalshi 50%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 30¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 36¢.

Show 15 more outcomes
I Play RockyArb
37.2%
Polymarket 42%polled, 32s agoKalshi 23%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 30¢ and selling on Polymarket at 39¢ nets 900 bps before fees.

ObsessionArb
27.9%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 11%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$443
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 11¢ and selling on Polymarket at 33¢ nets 2200 bps before fees.

ElsinoreArb
26.8%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 18%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$608
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$255
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 22¢ and selling on Polymarket at 29¢ nets 700 bps before fees.

The Adventures of Cliff Booth
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Digger
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Behemoth!
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Polymarket
Possible Love
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 32s agoKalshi 11%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Avengers: Doomsday
8.3%
Polymarket 8.3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wildwood
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Woman Unknown
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Woman Unknown
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fatherland
5.5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.9¢.

The Social Reckoning
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Disclosure Day
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Drama
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$747
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Obsession on Kalshi at 11¢, sell on Polymarket at 33¢ (2200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 21, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 21, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • La Bola Negra
  • Wild Horse Nine

Live prices for The Odyssey

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Nominations: Best Motion Picture - Drama". The Odyssey leads at 97.6%. Next is La Bola Negra at 93.6%. $141K has traded across 25 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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