The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Nominations: Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

Closes
Dec 8, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$14K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Invite 94%

Next is The Debut at 92%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
The Invite
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Kalshi
The Debut
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$436
Trade this on Kalshi
Wild Horse Nine
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Club Kid
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$628
Trade this on Kalshi
Obsession
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$151
Trade this on Kalshi
Project Hail Mary
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Kalshi
I Play Rocky
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Digger
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Primetime
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Primetime
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$631
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Tender Loving Care
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tender Loving Care
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Drama
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Drama
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Kalshi
The Devil Wears Prada 2
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$87
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Invite
  • The Debut
  • Wild Horse Nine

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Nominations: Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy". The Invite leads at 94%. Next is The Debut at 92%. $14K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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