The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Nominations: Best Screenplay

Closes
Dec 8, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$57K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Wild Horse Nine 90.8%

Next is The Debut at 84.8%. The venues differ most on Project Hail Mary (Polymarket 73%, Kalshi 32%), a 41-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Wild Horse Nine
90.8%
Polymarket 92.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$864
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 91¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 98¢.

The Debut
84.8%
Polymarket 84.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
84.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$924
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 83¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 92¢.

La Bola Negra
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$640
Trade this on Kalshi
Obsession
65.5%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Polymarket
Project Hail MaryArb
62.8%
Polymarket 73%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$902
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$133
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 32¢ and selling on Polymarket at 62¢ nets 3000 bps before fees.

The InviteArb
56.1%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 93.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$595
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
93.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96.8¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$569
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 76¢ nets 6930 bps before fees.

Club Kid
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
All of a SuddenArb
53.8%
Polymarket 60%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$739
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 40¢ and selling on Polymarket at 59¢ nets 1900 bps before fees.

The OdysseyArb
44.1%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 88.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
88.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 61¢ nets 5340 bps before fees.

FjordArb
37.9%
Polymarket 43%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 25¢ and selling on Polymarket at 41¢ nets 1600 bps before fees.

Show 21 more outcomes
Dune: Part Three
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$476
Trade this on Polymarket
The Black Ball
23.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$778
Trade this on Polymarket
Behemoth!
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Polymarket
Forgotten Island
22.9%
Polymarket 22.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
22.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Polymarket
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
22.8%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 29.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$631
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
29.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34.8¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$287 (2.87x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elsinore
21%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$976
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 30¢.

The Drama
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ink
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ink
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Possible Love
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Clarissa
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Digger
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Josephine
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josephine
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Polymarket
Saturn Return
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Polymarket
Wildwood
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cry to Heaven
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fatherland
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$527
Trade this on Polymarket
The Whisper Man
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$371
Trade this on Polymarket
A Place in Hell
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
A Place in Hell
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$571
Trade this on Polymarket
The Social Reckoning
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$386
Trade this on Polymarket
Toy Story 5
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy The Invite on Polymarket at 6.7¢, sell on Kalshi at 76¢ (6930 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wild Horse Nine
  • The Debut
  • La Bola Negra

Live prices for Wild Horse Nine

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Nominations: Best Screenplay". Wild Horse Nine leads at 90.8%. Next is The Debut at 84.8%. $57K has traded across 31 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More culture markets

See all culture markets