The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Nominations: Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

Closes
Dec 8, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$43K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Paul Giamatti 93.3%

Next is Sam Rockwell at 79.3%. The venues differ most on Edward Norton (Polymarket 51%, Kalshi 90%), a 39-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Paul Giamatti
93.3%
Polymarket 93%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$673
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 91¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 95¢.

Sam Rockwell
79.3%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$858
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 75¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 75¢.

John Leguizamo
77%
Polymarket 74%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 70¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 76¢.

Andrew Garfield
71%
Polymarket 71%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Guitarricadelafuente
67.4%
Polymarket 67%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 68%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 68¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 69¢.

Edward NortonArb
60.8%
Polymarket 51%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 57¢ and selling on Kalshi at 70¢ nets 1300 bps before fees.

Colman DomingoArb
28.4%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$903
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 27¢ and selling on Kalshi at 30¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

John GoodmanArb
28%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $602 (6.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16.6¢
Sell Yes
15.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$602 (6.02x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 16.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 30¢ nets 1340 bps before fees.

Robert Pattinson
25.9%
Polymarket 29%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$555
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 27¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 30¢.

Jeremy Strong
15.2%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$190
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7.6¢.

Show 17 more outcomes
Skyler Gisondo
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Skylar Gisondo
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Guy PearceArb
14.7%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$473
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 15¢ nets 730 bps before fees.

Riz Ahmed
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Steve Buscemi
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Buscemi
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Polymarket
Skyler Gisondo
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Skyler Gisondo
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Fassbender
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Fassbender
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.5¢
Sell Yes
4.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$952 (9.52x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Polymarket
Channing Tatum
6.8%
Polymarket 6.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Polymarket
James Ortiz
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Ortiz
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$224
Trade this on Polymarket
Antonio Banderas
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Antonio Banderas
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Himesh Patel
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Himesh Patel
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miles Teller
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Polymarket
Adam Scott
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Holland
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Charles Melton
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jesse Plemons
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Plemons
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert De Niro
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert De Niro
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniel Craig
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Craig
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy John Goodman on Polymarket at 16.6¢, sell on Kalshi at 30¢ (1340 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Paul Giamatti
  • Sam Rockwell
  • John Leguizamo

Live prices for Paul Giamatti

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Nominations: Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture". Paul Giamatti leads at 93.3%. Next is Sam Rockwell at 79.3%. $43K has traded across 27 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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