The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Nominations: Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Closes
Dec 8, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$43K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Anne Hathaway 89.4%

Next is Samantha Morton at 80.5%. The venues differ most on Olivia Colman (Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 55%), a 24-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Anne Hathaway
89.4%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$327
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 81¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 89¢.

Samantha Morton
80.5%
Polymarket 81%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 79%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$974
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 80¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 80¢.

Penélope CruzArb
78.8%
Polymarket 74%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$824
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 76¢ and selling on Kalshi at 81¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

Tao Okamoto
61.1%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 60%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tao Okamoto
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$654
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tao Okamoto
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 60¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 64¢.

Amanda Seyfried
59%
Polymarket 59%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amanda Seyfried
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Olivia Colman
43.3%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$315
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 35¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 39¢.

Esmé Creed-Miles
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Esmé Creed-Miles
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Mariana di Girolamo
30.9%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mariana di Girolamo
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mariana Di Girolamo
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$195
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 29¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 35¢.

Kate O'Flynn
29%
Polymarket 38%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kate O'Flynn
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kate O’Flynn
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 25¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 46¢.

Sandra Hüller
24%
Polymarket 23%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 15¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 34¢.

Show 10 more outcomes
Parker Posey
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Parker Posey
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Danielle Deadwyler
19.2%
Polymarket 19.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danielle Deadwyler
Last price
19.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Betty Gilpin
19.1%
Polymarket 19.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 36.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $275 (2.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Betty Gilpin
Last price
19.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
36.4¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$275 (2.75x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Polymarket
Glenn Close
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Glenn Close
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
Merritt Wever
12.3%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Merritt Wever
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Merritt Wever
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 12¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 22¢.

Gemma Chan
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gemma Chan
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Polymarket
Zendaya
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$681
Trade this on Polymarket
Isabella Rossellini
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Isabella Rossellini
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Margaret Qualley
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Margaret Qualley
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Polymarket
Inde Navarrette
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Penélope Cruz on Polymarket at 76¢, sell on Kalshi at 81¢ (500 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Anne Hathaway
  • Samantha Morton
  • Penélope Cruz

Live prices for Anne Hathaway

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Nominations: Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture". Anne Hathaway leads at 89.4%. Next is Samantha Morton at 80.5%. $43K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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