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What the markets expect
Atlanta wins by over 1.5 points 59.5%
Next is Atlanta wins by over 3.5 points at 56%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Atlanta wins by over 1.5 points59.5%Not listed59.5%59¢ bid, 60¢ askpolled, just now60¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $167 (1.67x)Atlanta wins by over 1.5 points59.5%Kalshi 59.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Atlanta wins by over 1.5 points
59.5%
Not listed
59.5%
59¢ bid, 60¢ ask
polled, just now
60¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Atlanta wins by over 1.5 points
59.5%
Kalshi 59.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Atlanta wins by over 1.5 points
- Last price
- 59.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
Atlanta wins by over 3.5 points56%Not listed56%55¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, just now56¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Atlanta wins by over 3.5 points56%Kalshi 56%polled, just nowBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Atlanta wins by over 3.5 points
56%
Not listed
56%
55¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, just now
56¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Atlanta wins by over 3.5 points
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, just nowBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Atlanta wins by over 3.5 points
- Last price
- 56%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $1K
2H Moneyline49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed99¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $101 (1.01x)2H Moneyline49.5%Polymarket 49.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
2H Moneyline
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
99¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
2H Moneyline
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2H Moneyline
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $56
4Q Moneyline49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed99¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $101 (1.01x)4Q Moneyline49.5%Polymarket 49.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
4Q Moneyline
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
99¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
4Q Moneyline
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4Q Moneyline
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $56
Atlanta wins by over 6.5 points43%Not listed43%43¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, just now45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Atlanta wins by over 6.5 points43%Kalshi 43%polled, just nowBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Atlanta wins by over 6.5 points
43%
Not listed
43%
43¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, just now
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Atlanta wins by over 6.5 points
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, just nowBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Atlanta wins by over 6.5 points
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 43¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $601
Golden State wins by over 1.5 points36%Not listed36%31¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, just now36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Golden State wins by over 1.5 points36%Kalshi 36%polled, just nowBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Golden State wins by over 1.5 points
36%
Not listed
36%
31¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, just now
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Golden State wins by over 1.5 points
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, just nowBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Golden State wins by over 1.5 points
- Last price
- 36%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $49
Atlanta wins by over 9.5 points34%Not listed34%32¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, just now34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Atlanta wins by over 9.5 points34%Kalshi 34%polled, just nowBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Atlanta wins by over 9.5 points
34%
Not listed
34%
32¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, just now
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Atlanta wins by over 9.5 points
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, just nowBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Atlanta wins by over 9.5 points
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $283
Golden State wins by over 3.5 points29.5%Not listed29.5%27¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, just now32¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $313 (3.13x)Golden State wins by over 3.5 points29.5%Kalshi 29.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Golden State wins by over 3.5 points
29.5%
Not listed
29.5%
27¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, just now
32¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Golden State wins by over 3.5 points
29.5%
Kalshi 29.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Golden State wins by over 3.5 points
- Last price
- 29.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
Atlanta wins by over 12.5 points25%Not listed25%24¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, just now25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Atlanta wins by over 12.5 points25%Kalshi 25%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Atlanta wins by over 12.5 points
25%
Not listed
25%
24¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, just now
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Atlanta wins by over 12.5 points
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Atlanta wins by over 12.5 points
- Last price
- 25%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $27
Golden State wins by over 6.5 points22%Not listed22%18¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, just now22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Golden State wins by over 6.5 points22%Kalshi 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Golden State wins by over 6.5 points
22%
Not listed
22%
18¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, just now
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Golden State wins by over 6.5 points
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Golden State wins by over 6.5 points
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $17
Atlanta wins by over 15.5 points18%Not listed18%17¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, just now18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Atlanta wins by over 15.5 points18%Kalshi 18%polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Atlanta wins by over 15.5 points
18%
Not listed
18%
17¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, just now
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Atlanta wins by over 15.5 points
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Atlanta wins by over 15.5 points
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $3K
Golden State wins by over 9.5 points15%Not listed15%12¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, just now15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Golden State wins by over 9.5 points15%Kalshi 15%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Golden State wins by over 9.5 points
15%
Not listed
15%
12¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, just now
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Golden State wins by over 9.5 points
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Golden State wins by over 9.5 points
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $84
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: wnba.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Atlanta wins by over 1.5 points
- Atlanta wins by over 3.5 points
- 2H Moneyline
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Atlanta wins by over 1.5 points for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Golden State vs Atlanta: Spread". Atlanta wins by over 1.5 points leads at 59.5%. Next is Atlanta wins by over 3.5 points at 56%. $68K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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