The Prediction Markets

Google market share this week

Closes
Oct 26, 2026, in 3 days
Traded
$226K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 16.6% 92%

Next is Above 18.0% at 53%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 16.6%
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16.6%
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18.0%
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.0%
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
DeepSeek
48.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 96.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
96.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
97.3¢
Sell Yes
96.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
OpenAI
38.4%
Polymarket 57%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 43%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 1.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$179
Trade this on Polymarket
Google
32.8%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 57%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 1.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$174
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 19.0%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.0%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.3%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.3%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.6%
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.6%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.8%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.8%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20.1%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20.1%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 20.8%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20.8%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 21.8%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 21.8%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tencent
0.4%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 1.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$531
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$265
Trade this on Polymarket
Meta
0.4%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 1.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$666
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Polymarket
Qwen
0.3%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Qwen
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Qwen
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$777
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Qwen
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$194
Trade this on Polymarket
MiniMax
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Polymarket
Z.ai
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$466
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$234
Trade this on Polymarket
Xiaomi
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$536
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$228
Trade this on Polymarket
Anthropic
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$635
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$222
Trade this on Polymarket
Nvidia
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$460
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$728
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Polymarket
xAI
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
xAI
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$940
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
xAI
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$605
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
xAI
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: openrouter.ai
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: OpenRouter - AI Market Share

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 16.6%
  • Above 18.0%
  • DeepSeek

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 16.6% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Google market share this week". Above 16.6% leads at 92%. Next is Above 18.0% at 53%. $226K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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