The Prediction Markets

Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies: #1 search

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Obsession 40.4%

Next is The Odyssey at 34.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Obsession 40.4%The Odyssey 34.5%Spider-Man: Brand New Day 9.8%Backrooms 2.9%One Battle After Another 1.9%8 others 10.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Obsession
40.4%
Kalshi 41%(40.4% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
41%
Fair, margin removed
40.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Odyssey
34.5%
Kalshi 35%(34.5% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
35%
Fair, margin removed
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
9.8%
Kalshi 10%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$905
Trade this on Kalshi
Backrooms
2.9%
Kalshi 3%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Backrooms
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$53
Trade this on Kalshi
One Battle After Another
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
One Battle After Another
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sinners
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sinners
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Devil Wears Prada 2
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Michael
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$492
Trade this on Kalshi
Project Hail Mary
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Kalshi
Toy Story 5
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$315
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Google Trends

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Obsession
  • The Odyssey
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies: #1 search". Obsession leads at 40.4%. Next is The Odyssey at 34.5%. $13K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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