The Prediction Markets

GPU rental prices (H100) hit___ in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
5 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

1.50 30.2%

Next is 2.00 at 27%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

1.50 30.2%2.00 27%3.50 23.2%2.25 19.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
1.50
30.2%
Polymarket 33.2%(30.2% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 50.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.50
Last price
33.2%
Fair, margin removed
30.2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
50.9¢
Sell Yes
15.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.00
27%
Polymarket 29.7%(27% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 31.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $317 (3.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.00
Last price
29.7%
Fair, margin removed
27%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
31.5¢
Sell Yes
27.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$317 (3.17x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.50
23.2%
Polymarket 25.5%(23.2% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.50
Last price
25.5%
Fair, margin removed
23.2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.25
19.6%
Polymarket 21.5%(19.6% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.25
Last price
21.5%
Fair, margin removed
19.6%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: dashboard.ornnai.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 1.50
  • 2.00
  • 3.50

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "GPU rental prices (H100) hit___ in 2026?". 1.50 leads at 30.2%. Next is 2.00 at 27%. $20K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ornn H100 Index displays a finalized price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price for any day between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H100 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The daily values shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. This market will resolve as soon as the listed price is hit, or once the value for the specified end date is finalized. If not all relevant data has been finalized by the end of the 14th calendar date afterward (ET), this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to previously published data points, before all relevant data points have been finalized, will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after all relevant data points have been finalized will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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