The Prediction Markets

Grammy nominees: Record of the Year

Closes
Nov 1, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$42K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Choosin' Texas 89%

Next is The Fate of Ophelia at 87%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Choosin' Texas
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Choosin' Texas
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Fate of Ophelia
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Fate of Ophelia
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
I Just Might
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Just Might
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$495
Trade this on Kalshi
Man I Need
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Man I Need
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
WHERE IS MY HUSBAND!
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
WHERE IS MY HUSBAND!
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Aperture
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aperture
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
WHERE IS MY HUSBAND! - RAYE
24.1%
Polymarket 24.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 34.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $291 (2.91x)
Polymarket
Contract
WHERE IS MY HUSBAND! - RAYE
Last price
24.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
34.4¢
Sell Yes
13.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$291 (2.91x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Man I Need - Olivia Dean
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Man I Need - Olivia Dean
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$866
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
So Easy (To Fall In Love)
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
So Easy (To Fall In Love)
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
I Just Might - Bruno Mars
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
I Just Might - Bruno Mars
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
So Easy (To Fall In Love) - Olivia Dean
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
So Easy (To Fall In Love) - Olivia Dean
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$882
Trade this on Polymarket
Aperture - Harry Styles
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aperture - Harry Styles
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: grammy.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Recording Academy

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Choosin' Texas
  • The Fate of Ophelia
  • I Just Might

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Choosin' Texas for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Grammy nominees: Record of the Year". Choosin' Texas leads at 89%. Next is The Fate of Ophelia at 87%. $42K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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