The Prediction Markets

Grammy nominees: Song of the Year

Closes
Nov 1, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$106K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

I Knew It, I Knew You 88%

Next is Man I Need at 88%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
I Knew It, I Knew You
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Knew It, I Knew You
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Man I Need
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Man I Need
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
the cure
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
the cure
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Choosin' Texas
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Choosin' Texas
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
WHERE IS MY HUSBAND!
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
WHERE IS MY HUSBAND!
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Great Divide
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Great Divide
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Die On This Hill
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Die On This Hill
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
hate that i made you love me
44.4%
Polymarket 44.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande
Last price
44.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87.6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$179
Trade this on Polymarket
Risk It All
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risk It All
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Kalshi
the cure - Olivia Rodrigo
43.8%
Polymarket 43.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
the cure - Olivia Rodrigo
Last price
43.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64.2¢
Sell Yes
23.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 31 more outcomes
hate that i made you love me
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
hate that i made you love me
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dracula (with JENNIE)
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dracula (with JENNIE)
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
WHERE IS MY HUSBAND! - RAYE
34.8%
Polymarket 34.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
WHERE IS MY HUSBAND! - RAYE
Last price
34.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Aperture
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aperture
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Berghain
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Berghain
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Lost Boys
20.5%
Kalshi 20.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lost Boys
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley
16.4%
Polymarket 16.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $327 (3.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley
Last price
16.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30.6¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$327 (3.27x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Babydoll
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Babydoll
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Boston
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Boston
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bring Your Love
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bring Your Love
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Chanel
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chanel
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dai Dai
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dai Dai
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Everything Hallelujah
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Everything Hallelujah
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
girl, get up.
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
girl, get up.
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hit the Wall
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hit the Wall
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Iloveitiloveitiloveit
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iloveitiloveitiloveit
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Oh Yeah?:: Steve Lacy
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oh Yeah?:: Steve Lacy
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
RUNWAY
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
RUNWAY
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
White Feather Hawk Tail Deer Hunter
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
White Feather Hawk Tail Deer Hunter
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Zoo
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zoo
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
I Just Might - Bruno Mars
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
I Just Might - Bruno Mars
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$847
Trade this on Polymarket
Man I Need - Olivia Dean
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Man I Need - Olivia Dean
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
drop dead - Olivia Rodrigo
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
drop dead - Olivia Rodrigo
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
E85
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
E85
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
I Just Might
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Just Might
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
So Easy (To Fall In Love) - Olivia Dean
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
So Easy (To Fall In Love) - Olivia Dean
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Aperture - Harry Styles
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aperture - Harry Styles
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$373
Trade this on Polymarket
drop dead
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
drop dead
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
So Easy (To Fall In Love)
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
So Easy (To Fall In Love)
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Fate of Ophelia
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Fate of Ophelia
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: grammy.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Recording Academy

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • I Knew It, I Knew You
  • Man I Need
  • the cure

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list I Knew It, I Knew You for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Grammy nominees: Song of the Year". I Knew It, I Knew You leads at 88%. Next is Man I Need at 88%. $106K has traded across 41 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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