The Prediction Markets

Grammy winner: Album of the Year

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$177K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love 47.5%

Next is Lux at 19.5%. The venues differ most on you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love (Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 53%), a 8.5-point gap.

you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love 47.5%Lux 19.5%The Art of Loving 8%Confessions II - Madonna 5.6%The Great Divide 4.9%12 others 14.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
47.5%
Polymarket 44.5%(50.3% fair)polled, 1 h agoKalshi 53%(44.9% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love - Olivia Rodrigo
Last price
44.5%
Fair, margin removed
50.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
Last price
53%
Fair, margin removed
44.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 45¢ and selling on Kalshi at 50¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

Lux
19.5%
Polymarket 17.5%(19.8% fair)polled, 1 h agoKalshi 23%(19.5% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lux - Rosalía
Last price
17.5%
Fair, margin removed
19.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lux
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 19¢ and selling on Kalshi at 23¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

The Art of Loving
8%
Polymarket 6.2%(7% fair)polled, 1 h agoKalshi 13%(11% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Art of Loving - Olivia Dean
Last price
6.2%
Fair, margin removed
7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Art of Loving
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
11%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Confessions II - Madonna
5.6%
Polymarket 5%(5.6% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Confessions II - Madonna
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
5.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Great Divide
4.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 7%(5.9% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Great Divide - Noah Kahan
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Great Divide
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 2.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5¢ nets 230 bps before fees.

Lost Weekend
4.3%
Polymarket 5.6%(6.3% fair)polled, 1 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lost Weekend - Phoebe Bridgers
Last price
5.6%
Fair, margin removed
6.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lost Weekend
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5.5¢ nets 150 bps before fees.

Dandelion
3.4%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 4%(3.4% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dandelion - Ella Langley
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dandelion
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.1¢.

The Life of a Showgirl
1.7%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Life of a Showgirl - Taylor Swift
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Life of a Showgirl
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.8¢.

petal - Ariana Grande
1%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
petal - Ariana Grande
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Through the Wall
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Through the Wall
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Tie
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally
0.6%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally - Harry Styles
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$985
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

The Romantic
0.6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Romantic - Bruno Mars
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Romantic
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Arirang
0.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arirang - BTS
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Arirang
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

ICEMAN
0.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iceman - Drake
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$996
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
ICEMAN
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

West End Girl - Lily Allen
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
West End Girl - Lily Allen
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$908
Trade this on Polymarket
Octane - Don Toliver
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Octane - Don Toliver
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$679
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 1 h old: you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love asks 45¢ on Polymarket and bids 50¢ on Kalshi (500 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Feb 7, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: grammy.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Recording Academy
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Feb 7, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
  • Lux
  • The Art of Loving

Live prices for you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Grammy winner: Album of the Year". you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love leads at 47.5%. Next is Lux at 19.5%. $177K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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