The Prediction Markets

Grammy Winner: Best New Artist

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$154K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Ella Langley 64.3%

Next is SIENNA SPIRO at 30.9%. The venues differ most on SIENNA SPIRO (Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 32%), a 3.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ella Langley
64.3%
Polymarket 63.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 65%polled, just nowBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ella Langley
Last price
63.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ella Langley
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 64¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 64¢.

SIENNA SPIROArb
30.9%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
SIENNA SPIRO
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
SIENNA SPIRO
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 29¢ and selling on Kalshi at 30¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Tie
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$66
Trade this on Kalshi
Slayyyter
2.9%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Slayyyter
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$602
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Slayyyter
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.7¢.

Renee Rapp
2.7%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Renee Rapp
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$848
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Renee Rapp
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Megan Moroney
1.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Megan Moroney
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$370
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Megan Moroney
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Adela
1.2%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adéla
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$487
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Adéla
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.7¢.

The Beaches
1.1%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Beaches
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$403
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Beaches
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Magdalena Bay
1.1%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Magdalena Bay
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$408
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Magdalena Bay
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

PARTYOF2
1.1%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
PARTYOF2
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$398
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
PARTYOF2
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Show 58 more outcomes
Absolutely
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Absolutely
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Amber Mark
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amber Mark
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$929
Trade this on Kalshi
Annahstasia
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Annahstasia
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bar Italia
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bar Italia
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$929
Trade this on Kalshi
Cassandra Coleman
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cassandra Coleman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Celeste
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Celeste
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cleo Sol
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cleo Sol
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Danny L Harle
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Danny L Harle
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$972
Trade this on Kalshi
Debbii Dawson
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Debbii Dawson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Dougie F
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dougie F
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Eddie Benjamin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eddie Benjamin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
George Riley
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
George Riley
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Girlfriend
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Girlfriend
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Guerilla Toss
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guerilla Toss
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
H33RA
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
H33RA
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$972
Trade this on Kalshi
Hannah Jadagu
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hannah Jadagu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Jane Handcock
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jane Handcock
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Levi
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Levi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$972
Trade this on Kalshi
Joyce Wrice
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joyce Wrice
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Laila!
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Laila!
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Maruja
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maruja
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$672
Trade this on Kalshi
McKinley Dixon
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
McKinley Dixon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Mitski
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mitski
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Ms Banks
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ms Banks
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$972
Trade this on Kalshi
Nourished By Time
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nourished By Time
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
October London
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
October London
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Remy Bond
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Remy Bond
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Rob49
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rob49
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$719
Trade this on Kalshi
Rochelle Jordan
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rochelle Jordan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$972
Trade this on Kalshi
salute
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
salute
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$672
Trade this on Kalshi
Sammy Virji
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sammy Virji
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Say Now
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Say Now
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Sudan Archives
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sudan Archives
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$858
Trade this on Kalshi
Thee Sacred Souls
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Thee Sacred Souls
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Viagra Boys
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Viagra Boys
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$972
Trade this on Kalshi
Wednesday
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wednesday
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$972
Trade this on Kalshi
Whitney
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Whitney
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
CMAT
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
CMAT
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$442
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
CMAT
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$972
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

BigXthaPlug
0.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
BigXthaPlug
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$438
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
BigXthaPlug
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

EsDeeKid
0.9%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
EsDeeKid
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
EsDeeKid
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

The Last Dinner Party
0.9%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Last Dinner Party
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$444
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Last Dinner Party
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$859
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Loe Shimmy
0.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Loe Shimmy
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$409
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Loe Shimmy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$868
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

JADE
0.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
JADE
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$433
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
JADE
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jessie Murph
0.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jessie Murph
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$444
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jessie Murph
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Yazmin Lacey
0.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yazmin Lacey
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$444
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yazmin Lacey
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Bella Kay
0.9%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bella Kay
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$348
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bella Kay
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Dijon
0.9%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dijon
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dijon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Skye Newman
0.8%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Skye Newman
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$423
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Skye Newman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$972
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Black Country, New Road
0.8%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Black Country, New Road
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$404
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Black Country, New Road
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$929
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Ninajirachi
0.8%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ninajirachi
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$425
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ninajirachi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Mk.gee
0.8%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mk.gee
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$427
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mk.gee
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Geese
0.8%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Geese
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$387
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Geese
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

SAILORR
0.8%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
SAILORR
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$444
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
SAILORR
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Nami
0.8%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nami
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$384
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nami
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$972
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Oklou
0.8%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oklou
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Oklou
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Sasha Keable
0.8%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sasha Keable
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$436
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sasha Keable
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$894
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jordan Ward
0.8%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Ward
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$418
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Ward
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Model/Actriz
0.8%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Model/Actriz
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$435
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Model/Actriz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$855
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy SIENNA SPIRO on Polymarket at 29¢, sell on Kalshi at 30¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Feb 7, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: grammy.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Recording Academy
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Feb 7, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ella Langley
  • SIENNA SPIRO
  • Tie

Live prices for Ella Langley

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Grammy Winner: Best New Artist". Ella Langley leads at 64.3%. Next is SIENNA SPIRO at 30.9%. $154K has traded across 68 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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