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—
Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Tie 97%
Next is Don't Be Dumb at 95%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Tie97%Not listed97%12¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 58s ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Tie97%Kalshi 97%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Tie
97%
Not listed
97%
12¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Tie
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tie
- Last price
- 97%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $5K
Don't Be Dumb95%Not listed95%18¢ bid, — askpolled, 58s agoNo askDon't Be Dumb95%Kalshi 95%polled, 58s ago
Don't Be Dumb
95%
Not listed
95%
18¢ bid, — ask
polled, 58s ago
No ask
Don't Be Dumb
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 58s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Don't Be Dumb
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- Volume
- $1K
OCTANE86%Not listed86%81¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, 58s ago87¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $115 (1.15x)OCTANE86%Kalshi 86%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
OCTANE
86%
Not listed
86%
81¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
87¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
OCTANE
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- OCTANE
- Last price
- 86%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 81¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $2K
Kehlani81%Not listed81%— bid, 81¢ askpolled, 58s ago81¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $123 (1.23x)Kehlani81%Kalshi 81%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kehlani
81%
Not listed
81%
— bid, 81¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
81¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kehlani
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kehlani
- Last price
- 81%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 81¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $123 (1.23x)
- Volume
- $54
Do You Still Love Me?:: Ella Mai49.5%Not listed49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 58s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Do You Still Love Me?:: Ella Mai49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Do You Still Love Me?:: Ella Mai
49.5%
Not listed
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Do You Still Love Me?:: Ella Mai
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Do You Still Love Me?:: Ella Mai
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Here For It All49.5%Not listed49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 58s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Here For It All49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Here For It All
49.5%
Not listed
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Here For It All
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Here For It All
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Saturday Night49.5%Not listed49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 58s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Saturday Night49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Saturday Night
49.5%
Not listed
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Saturday Night
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Saturday Night
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
sounds for someone49.5%Not listed49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 58s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)sounds for someone49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
sounds for someone
49.5%
Not listed
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
sounds for someone
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- sounds for someone
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
To Whom This May Concern49.5%Not listed49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 58s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)To Whom This May Concern49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
To Whom This May Concern
49.5%
Not listed
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
To Whom This May Concern
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- To Whom This May Concern
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Vacancy49.5%Not listed49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 58s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Vacancy49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Vacancy
49.5%
Not listed
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Vacancy
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vacancy
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Show 15 more outcomesHide 15 outcomes
When The City Sleeps49.5%Not listed49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 58s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)When The City Sleeps49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
When The City Sleeps
49.5%
Not listed
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
When The City Sleeps
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- When The City Sleeps
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
BROWN44.5%Not listed44.5%— bid, 89¢ askpolled, 58s ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)BROWN44.5%Kalshi 44.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
BROWN
44.5%
Not listed
44.5%
— bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
BROWN
44.5%
Kalshi 44.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- BROWN
- Last price
- 44.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
Finally Over It43.5%Not listed43.5%— bid, 87¢ askpolled, 58s ago87¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $115 (1.15x)Finally Over It43.5%Kalshi 43.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Finally Over It
43.5%
Not listed
43.5%
— bid, 87¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
87¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Finally Over It
43.5%
Kalshi 43.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Finally Over It
- Last price
- 43.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
Octane - Don Toliver30.5%30.5%30¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed31¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Octane - Don Toliver30.5%Polymarket 30.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Octane - Don Toliver
30.5%
30.5%
30¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
31¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Octane - Don Toliver
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Octane - Don Toliver
- Last price
- 30.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $9K
Don't Be Dumb - A$AP Rocky28%28%27¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed29¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $345 (3.45x)Don't Be Dumb - A$AP Rocky28%Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Don't Be Dumb - A$AP Rocky
28%
28%
27¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
29¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Don't Be Dumb - A$AP Rocky
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Don't Be Dumb - A$AP Rocky
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $15K
Bully17%Not listed17%17¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 58s ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Bully17%Kalshi 17%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Bully
17%
Not listed
17%
17¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Bully
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bully
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $2K
Dillagence II - Busta Rhymes & J Dilla16%16%— bid, 32¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed32¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $313 (3.13x)Dillagence II - Busta Rhymes & J Dilla16%Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Dillagence II - Busta Rhymes & J Dilla
16%
16%
— bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
32¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Dillagence II - Busta Rhymes & J Dilla
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Dillagence II - Busta Rhymes & J Dilla
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $129
ICEMAN10%Not listed10%7¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 58s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)ICEMAN10%Kalshi 10%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
ICEMAN
10%
Not listed
10%
7¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
ICEMAN
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- ICEMAN
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $8K
The Fall-Off9%Not listed9%2¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 58s ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)The Fall-Off9%Kalshi 9%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
The Fall-Off
9%
Not listed
9%
2¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
The Fall-Off
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- The Fall-Off
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $4K
Ca$ino - Baby Keem7%7%5¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Ca$ino - Baby Keem7%Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Ca$ino - Baby Keem
7%
7%
5¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Ca$ino - Baby Keem
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ca$ino - Baby Keem
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $210
Cry Baby - Vince Staples3.7%3.7%0.3¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Cry Baby - Vince Staples3.7%Polymarket 3.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Cry Baby - Vince Staples
3.7%
3.7%
0.3¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Cry Baby - Vince Staples
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Cry Baby - Vince Staples
- Last price
- 3.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $95
Bully - Ye3.2%3.2%1¢ bid, 5.4¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed5.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)Bully - Ye3.2%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Bully - Ye
3.2%
3.2%
1¢ bid, 5.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
5.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Bully - Ye
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bully - Ye
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,852 (18.5x)
- Volume
- $164
Iceman - Drake3.2%3.2%2.1¢ bid, 4.2¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed4.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)Iceman - Drake3.2%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Iceman - Drake
3.2%
3.2%
2.1¢ bid, 4.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
4.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Iceman - Drake
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Iceman - Drake
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,381 (23.8x)
- Volume
- $8K
It's Been Awful - Isaiah Rashad2.2%2.2%0.5¢ bid, 3.9¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed3.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)It's Been Awful - Isaiah Rashad2.2%Polymarket 2.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
It's Been Awful - Isaiah Rashad
2.2%
2.2%
0.5¢ bid, 3.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
3.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
It's Been Awful - Isaiah Rashad
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- It's Been Awful - Isaiah Rashad
- Last price
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,564 (25.6x)
- Volume
- $88
The Fall-Off - J. Cole1.7%1.7%0.6¢ bid, 2.8¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed2.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)The Fall-Off - J. Cole1.7%Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
The Fall-Off - J. Cole
1.7%
1.7%
0.6¢ bid, 2.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
2.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
The Fall-Off - J. Cole
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- The Fall-Off - J. Cole
- Last price
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,571 (35.7x)
- Volume
- $7K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: grammy.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Recording Academy
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Tie
- Don't Be Dumb
- OCTANE
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Tie for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Grammys 2027: Best Rap Album Winner". Tie leads at 97%. Next is Don't Be Dumb at 95%. $62K has traded across 25 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 7, 2027.
The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 16, 2026, and the ceremony for February 7, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed album that wins Best Rap Album at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards. If an album is not officially nominated for Best Rap Album when the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated album whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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