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What the markets expect
Marc Marquez 32.3%
Next is Marco Bezzecchi at 15.8%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Marc Marquez32.3%47%32.3% fair45¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, 31s ago47¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $213 (2.13x)Marc Marquez32.3%Kalshi 47%(32.3% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Marc Marquez
32.3%
47%
32.3% fair
45¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
47¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Marc Marquez
32.3%
Kalshi 47%(32.3% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marc Marquez
- Last price
- 47%
- Fair, margin removed
- 32.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
- Volume
- $1K
Marco Bezzecchi15.8%23%15.8% fair19¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 31s ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Marco Bezzecchi15.8%Kalshi 23%(15.8% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Marco Bezzecchi
15.8%
23%
15.8% fair
19¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Marco Bezzecchi
15.8%
Kalshi 23%(15.8% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Bezzecchi
- Last price
- 23%
- Fair, margin removed
- 15.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $239
Jorge Martin14.5%21%14.4% fair13¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 31s ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Jorge Martin14.5%Kalshi 21%(14.4% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Jorge Martin
14.5%
21%
14.4% fair
13¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Jorge Martin
14.5%
Kalshi 21%(14.4% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jorge Martin
- Last price
- 21%
- Fair, margin removed
- 14.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $128
Ai Ogura4.8%7%4.8% fair1¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 31s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Ai Ogura4.8%Kalshi 7%(4.8% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Ai Ogura
4.8%
7%
4.8% fair
1¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Ai Ogura
4.8%
Kalshi 7%(4.8% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ai Ogura
- Last price
- 7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $200
Jack Miller3.5%5%3.4% fair— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 31s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Jack Miller3.5%Kalshi 5%(3.4% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Jack Miller
3.5%
5%
3.4% fair
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Jack Miller
3.5%
Kalshi 5%(3.4% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jack Miller
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $19
Raul Fernandez3.5%5%3.4% fair— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 31s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Raul Fernandez3.5%Kalshi 5%(3.4% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Raul Fernandez
3.5%
5%
3.4% fair
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Raul Fernandez
3.5%
Kalshi 5%(3.4% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Raul Fernandez
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $301
Alex Marquez1.8%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 31s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Alex Marquez1.8%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Alex Marquez
1.8%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Alex Marquez
1.8%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alex Marquez
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Alex Rins1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 31s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Alex Rins1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Alex Rins
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Alex Rins
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alex Rins
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Brad Binder1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 31s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Brad Binder1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Brad Binder
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Brad Binder
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brad Binder
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Diogo Moreira1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 31s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Diogo Moreira1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Diogo Moreira
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Diogo Moreira
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Diogo Moreira
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
Enea Bastianini1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 31s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Enea Bastianini1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Enea Bastianini
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Enea Bastianini
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Enea Bastianini
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Fabio Di Giannantonio1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 31s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Fabio Di Giannantonio1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Fabio Di Giannantonio
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Fabio Di Giannantonio
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fabio Di Giannantonio
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Fabio Quartararo1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 31s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Fabio Quartararo1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Fabio Quartararo
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Fabio Quartararo
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fabio Quartararo
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Fermin Aldeguer1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 31s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Fermin Aldeguer1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Fermin Aldeguer
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Fermin Aldeguer
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fermin Aldeguer
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Francesco Bagnaia1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 31s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Francesco Bagnaia1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Francesco Bagnaia
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Francesco Bagnaia
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Francesco Bagnaia
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Franco Morbidelli1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 31s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Franco Morbidelli1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Franco Morbidelli
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Franco Morbidelli
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Franco Morbidelli
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Johann Zarco1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 31s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Johann Zarco1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Johann Zarco
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Johann Zarco
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Johann Zarco
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Luca Marini1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 31s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Luca Marini1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Luca Marini
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Luca Marini
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Luca Marini
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Maverick Vinales1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 31s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Maverick Vinales1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Maverick Vinales
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Maverick Vinales
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maverick Vinales
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Pedro Acosta1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 31s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Pedro Acosta1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Pedro Acosta
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Pedro Acosta
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pedro Acosta
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Toprak Razgatlioglu1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 31s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Toprak Razgatlioglu1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Toprak Razgatlioglu
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Toprak Razgatlioglu
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Toprak Razgatlioglu
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: MotoGP
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Marc Marquez
- Marco Bezzecchi
- Jorge Martin
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Grand Prix of Australia Winner". Marc Marquez leads at 32.3%. Next is Marco Bezzecchi at 15.8%. $2K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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