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What the markets expect
Above 30M 98%
Next is Above 15M at 97%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 30M98%98%91¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 30M98%Kalshi 98%polled, just now
Above 30M
98%
98%
91¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 30M
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 30M
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 91¢
- Volume
- $200
Above 15M97%97%94¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 15M97%Kalshi 97%polled, just now
Above 15M
97%
97%
94¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 15M
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, just now
Above 10M96%96%94¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 10M96%Kalshi 96%polled, just now
Above 10M
96%
96%
94¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 10M
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 10M
- Last price
- 96%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 94¢
- Volume
- $80
Above 20M95%95%94¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 20M95%Kalshi 95%polled, just now
Above 20M
95%
95%
94¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 20M
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 20M
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 94¢
- Volume
- $105
Above 25M95%95%92¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, just now95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Above 25M95%Kalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 25M
95%
95%
92¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, just now
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 25M
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 25M
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 92¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $5K
Above 35M89%89%89¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, just now98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Above 35M89%Kalshi 89%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Above 35M
89%
89%
89¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, just now
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Above 35M
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 35M
- Last price
- 89%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 89¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $200
Above 40M87%87%87¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 40M87%Kalshi 87%polled, just now
Above 40M
87%
87%
87¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 40M
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 40M
- Last price
- 87%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 87¢
- Volume
- $326
Above 45M86%86%85¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 45M86%Kalshi 86%polled, just now
Above 45M
86%
86%
85¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 45M
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 45M
- Last price
- 86%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 85¢
- Volume
- $885
Above 50M84%84%83¢ bid, 96¢ askpolled, just now96¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Above 50M84%Kalshi 84%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Above 50M
84%
84%
83¢ bid, 96¢ ask
polled, just now
96¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Above 50M
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 50M
- Last price
- 84%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 83¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $2K
Above 65M84%84%75¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, just now95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Above 65M84%Kalshi 84%polled, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 65M
84%
84%
75¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, just now
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 65M
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 65M
- Last price
- 84%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 75¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $3K
Show 9 more outcomesHide 9 outcomes
Above 55M81%81%80¢ bid, 96¢ askpolled, just now96¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Above 55M81%Kalshi 81%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Above 55M
81%
81%
80¢ bid, 96¢ ask
polled, just now
96¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Above 55M
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 55M
- Last price
- 81%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 80¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $2K
Above 60M77%77%77¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, just now95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Above 60M77%Kalshi 77%polled, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 60M
77%
77%
77¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, just now
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 60M
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 60M
- Last price
- 77%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 77¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $2K
Above 70M70%70%70¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, just now93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Above 70M70%Kalshi 70%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Above 70M
70%
70%
70¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, just now
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Above 70M
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 70M
- Last price
- 70%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 70¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $2K
Above 75M66%66%66¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, just now93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Above 75M66%Kalshi 66%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Above 75M
66%
66%
66¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, just now
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Above 75M
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 75M
- Last price
- 66%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 66¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $2K
Above 80M63%63%61¢ bid, 92¢ askpolled, just now92¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $109 (1.09x)Above 80M63%Kalshi 63%polled, just nowBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Above 80M
63%
63%
61¢ bid, 92¢ ask
polled, just now
92¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Above 80M
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, just nowBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 80M
- Last price
- 63%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 92¢
- Sell Yes
- 61¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
- Volume
- $2K
Above 90M57%57%— bid, 61¢ askpolled, just now61¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $164 (1.64x)Above 90M57%Kalshi 57%polled, just nowBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Above 90M
57%
57%
— bid, 61¢ ask
polled, just now
61¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Above 90M
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, just nowBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 90M
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 61¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $164 (1.64x)
- Volume
- $2K
Above 95M8%8%— bid, 56¢ askpolled, just now56¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Above 95M8%Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Above 95M
8%
8%
— bid, 56¢ ask
polled, just now
56¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Above 95M
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 95M
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $4K
Above 85M6%6%— bid, 91¢ askpolled, just now91¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $110 (1.10x)Above 85M6%Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Above 85M
6%
6%
— bid, 91¢ ask
polled, just now
91¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Above 85M
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 85M
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 91¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
- Volume
- $2K
Above 100M5%5%— bid, 52¢ askpolled, just now52¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $192 (1.92x)Above 100M5%Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Above 100M
5%
5%
— bid, 52¢ ask
polled, just now
52¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Above 100M
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 100M
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
- Volume
- $3K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Luminate
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 30M
- Above 15M
- Above 10M
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Grand Theft Auto VI · The Album: First Week Streams". Above 30M leads at 98%. Next is Above 15M at 97%. $34K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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