The Prediction Markets

Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev: Method of Victory

Starts in 28 hKickoff
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

O/U 0.5 Rounds 91%

Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 79%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
O/U 0.5 Rounds
91%
Polymarket 91%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
79%
Polymarket 79%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Rounds
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
65%
Polymarket 65%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$85
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
63%
Polymarket 63%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Polymarket
Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dawson in Round 1
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dawson in Round 1
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Nurullo Aliev by Decision
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nurullo Aliev by Decision
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Kalshi
Grant Dawson by Decision
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grant Dawson by Decision
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$707
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 16 more outcomes
Ends before Round 3?
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by KO/TKO?
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Grant Dawson by Submission
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grant Dawson by Submission
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$379
Trade this on Kalshi
Aliev to win by KO/TKO?
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aliev to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Nurullo Aliev by KO/TKO/DQ
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nurullo Aliev by KO/TKO/DQ
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Aliev in Round 1
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aliev in Round 1
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Dawson in Round 2
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dawson in Round 2
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Dawson in Round 3
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dawson in Round 3
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Polymarket
Dawson to win by KO/TKO?
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dawson to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Grant Dawson by KO/TKO/DQ
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grant Dawson by KO/TKO/DQ
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$195
Trade this on Kalshi
Aliev in Round 2
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aliev in Round 2
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Aliev in Round 3
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aliev in Round 3
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Nurullo Aliev by Submission
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nurullo Aliev by Submission
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Kalshi
Draw/No Contest
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Draw/No Contest
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Paramount+, Fox Sports

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • O/U 1.5 Rounds
  • Fight won by decision?

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev: Method of Victory". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 91%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 79%. $21K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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