The Prediction Markets

Grok (Web) Outage by...?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
6 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

November 30 33%

Next is October 31 at 29.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
November 30
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 31
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: status.x.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • November 30
  • October 31

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Grok (Web) Outage by...?". November 30 leads at 33%. Next is October 31 at 29.5%. $5K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Grok (Web) experiences an incident labeled “outage” on the official xAI Grok (Web) status page between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Only incidents listed under Grok (Web) will be considered. Incidents affecting Grok in X, Grok (iOS), Grok (Android), or similar but not Grok (Web), will not qualify. Incidents labeled “disruption” or “info” will not qualify. An incident’s status while it remains ongoing will not determine the market’s resolution; only incidents marked “Resolved” will be considered. An incident which is marked "Resolved" outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at the end of the listed calendar date (ET), in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked “Resolved,” and resolution of this market will be based on the incident classification displayed immediately after it is marked "Resolved." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official xAI Grok (Web) status page at https://status.x.ai/grok-com. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until it comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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