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Trading ended on Jul 12, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
1: Brazil / 2: Morocco / 3: Scotland / 4: Haiti28.9%40%28.9% fair36¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago38¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $263 (2.63x)1: Brazil / 2: Morocco / 3: Scotland / 4: Haiti28.9%Kalshi 40%(28.9% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
1: Brazil / 2: Morocco / 3: Scotland / 4: Haiti
28.9%
40%
28.9% fair
36¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
38¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
1: Brazil / 2: Morocco / 3: Scotland / 4: Haiti
28.9%
Kalshi 40%(28.9% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Brazil / 2: Morocco / 3: Scotland / 4: Haiti
- Last price
- 40%
- Fair, margin removed
- 28.9%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 36¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $20K
1: Morocco / 2: Brazil / 3: Scotland / 4: Haiti18.8%26%18.8% fair21¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)1: Morocco / 2: Brazil / 3: Scotland / 4: Haiti18.8%Kalshi 26%(18.8% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
1: Morocco / 2: Brazil / 3: Scotland / 4: Haiti
18.8%
26%
18.8% fair
21¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
1: Morocco / 2: Brazil / 3: Scotland / 4: Haiti
18.8%
Kalshi 26%(18.8% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Morocco / 2: Brazil / 3: Scotland / 4: Haiti
- Last price
- 26%
- Fair, margin removed
- 18.8%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $7K
1: Morocco / 2: Scotland / 3: Brazil / 4: Haiti14.4%20%14.4% fair4¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)1: Morocco / 2: Scotland / 3: Brazil / 4: Haiti14.4%Kalshi 20%(14.4% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
1: Morocco / 2: Scotland / 3: Brazil / 4: Haiti
14.4%
20%
14.4% fair
4¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
1: Morocco / 2: Scotland / 3: Brazil / 4: Haiti
14.4%
Kalshi 20%(14.4% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Morocco / 2: Scotland / 3: Brazil / 4: Haiti
- Last price
- 20%
- Fair, margin removed
- 14.4%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $856
1: Morocco / 2: Brazil / 3: Haiti / 4: Scotland11.5%16%11.6% fair— bid, 10¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)1: Morocco / 2: Brazil / 3: Haiti / 4: Scotland11.5%Kalshi 16%(11.6% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
1: Morocco / 2: Brazil / 3: Haiti / 4: Scotland
11.5%
16%
11.6% fair
— bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
1: Morocco / 2: Brazil / 3: Haiti / 4: Scotland
11.5%
Kalshi 16%(11.6% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Morocco / 2: Brazil / 3: Haiti / 4: Scotland
- Last price
- 16%
- Fair, margin removed
- 11.6%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $313
1: Brazil / 2: Scotland / 3: Morocco / 4: Haiti7.9%11%7.9% fair3¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)1: Brazil / 2: Scotland / 3: Morocco / 4: Haiti7.9%Kalshi 11%(7.9% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
1: Brazil / 2: Scotland / 3: Morocco / 4: Haiti
7.9%
11%
7.9% fair
3¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
1: Brazil / 2: Scotland / 3: Morocco / 4: Haiti
7.9%
Kalshi 11%(7.9% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Brazil / 2: Scotland / 3: Morocco / 4: Haiti
- Last price
- 11%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.9%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $3K
1: Scotland / 2: Brazil / 3: Morocco / 4: Haiti3.6%5%3.6% fair— bid, 15¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)1: Scotland / 2: Brazil / 3: Morocco / 4: Haiti3.6%Kalshi 5%(3.6% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
1: Scotland / 2: Brazil / 3: Morocco / 4: Haiti
3.6%
5%
3.6% fair
— bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
1: Scotland / 2: Brazil / 3: Morocco / 4: Haiti
3.6%
Kalshi 5%(3.6% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Scotland / 2: Brazil / 3: Morocco / 4: Haiti
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.6%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $2K
1: Scotland / 2: Morocco / 3: Brazil / 4: Haiti3.6%5%3.6% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)1: Scotland / 2: Morocco / 3: Brazil / 4: Haiti3.6%Kalshi 5%(3.6% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
1: Scotland / 2: Morocco / 3: Brazil / 4: Haiti
3.6%
5%
3.6% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
1: Scotland / 2: Morocco / 3: Brazil / 4: Haiti
3.6%
Kalshi 5%(3.6% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Scotland / 2: Morocco / 3: Brazil / 4: Haiti
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.6%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
1: Brazil / 2: Haiti / 3: Scotland / 4: Morocco1.4%2%1.4% fair— bid, 10¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)1: Brazil / 2: Haiti / 3: Scotland / 4: Morocco1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
1: Brazil / 2: Haiti / 3: Scotland / 4: Morocco
1.4%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
1: Brazil / 2: Haiti / 3: Scotland / 4: Morocco
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Brazil / 2: Haiti / 3: Scotland / 4: Morocco
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $949
1: Brazil / 2: Morocco / 3: Haiti / 4: Scotland1.4%2%1.4% fair1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)1: Brazil / 2: Morocco / 3: Haiti / 4: Scotland1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
1: Brazil / 2: Morocco / 3: Haiti / 4: Scotland
1.4%
2%
1.4% fair
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
1: Brazil / 2: Morocco / 3: Haiti / 4: Scotland
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Brazil / 2: Morocco / 3: Haiti / 4: Scotland
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
1: Brazil / 2: Scotland / 3: Haiti / 4: Morocco1.4%2%1.4% fair1¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)1: Brazil / 2: Scotland / 3: Haiti / 4: Morocco1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
1: Brazil / 2: Scotland / 3: Haiti / 4: Morocco
1.4%
2%
1.4% fair
1¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
1: Brazil / 2: Scotland / 3: Haiti / 4: Morocco
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Brazil / 2: Scotland / 3: Haiti / 4: Morocco
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $1K
Show 14 more outcomesHide 14 outcomes
1: Brazil / 2: Haiti / 3: Morocco / 4: Scotland0.7%1%— bid, 10¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)1: Brazil / 2: Haiti / 3: Morocco / 4: Scotland0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
1: Brazil / 2: Haiti / 3: Morocco / 4: Scotland
0.7%
1%
— bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
1: Brazil / 2: Haiti / 3: Morocco / 4: Scotland
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Brazil / 2: Haiti / 3: Morocco / 4: Scotland
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $932
1: Haiti / 2: Scotland / 3: Morocco / 4: Brazil0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)1: Haiti / 2: Scotland / 3: Morocco / 4: Brazil0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Haiti / 2: Scotland / 3: Morocco / 4: Brazil
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Haiti / 2: Scotland / 3: Morocco / 4: Brazil
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Haiti / 2: Scotland / 3: Morocco / 4: Brazil
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $468
1: Morocco / 2: Haiti / 3: Scotland / 4: Brazil0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)1: Morocco / 2: Haiti / 3: Scotland / 4: Brazil0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Morocco / 2: Haiti / 3: Scotland / 4: Brazil
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Morocco / 2: Haiti / 3: Scotland / 4: Brazil
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Morocco / 2: Haiti / 3: Scotland / 4: Brazil
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $23
1: Morocco / 2: Scotland / 3: Haiti / 4: Brazil0.7%1%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)1: Morocco / 2: Scotland / 3: Haiti / 4: Brazil0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
1: Morocco / 2: Scotland / 3: Haiti / 4: Brazil
0.7%
1%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
1: Morocco / 2: Scotland / 3: Haiti / 4: Brazil
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Morocco / 2: Scotland / 3: Haiti / 4: Brazil
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $1K
1: Scotland / 2: Brazil / 3: Haiti / 4: Morocco0.7%1%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)1: Scotland / 2: Brazil / 3: Haiti / 4: Morocco0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
1: Scotland / 2: Brazil / 3: Haiti / 4: Morocco
0.7%
1%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
1: Scotland / 2: Brazil / 3: Haiti / 4: Morocco
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Scotland / 2: Brazil / 3: Haiti / 4: Morocco
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $381
1: Haiti / 2: Brazil / 3: Morocco / 4: Scotland0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)1: Haiti / 2: Brazil / 3: Morocco / 4: Scotland0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Haiti / 2: Brazil / 3: Morocco / 4: Scotland
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Haiti / 2: Brazil / 3: Morocco / 4: Scotland
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Haiti / 2: Brazil / 3: Morocco / 4: Scotland
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
1: Haiti / 2: Brazil / 3: Scotland / 4: Morocco0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)1: Haiti / 2: Brazil / 3: Scotland / 4: Morocco0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Haiti / 2: Brazil / 3: Scotland / 4: Morocco
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Haiti / 2: Brazil / 3: Scotland / 4: Morocco
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Haiti / 2: Brazil / 3: Scotland / 4: Morocco
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
1: Haiti / 2: Morocco / 3: Brazil / 4: Scotland0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)1: Haiti / 2: Morocco / 3: Brazil / 4: Scotland0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Haiti / 2: Morocco / 3: Brazil / 4: Scotland
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Haiti / 2: Morocco / 3: Brazil / 4: Scotland
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Haiti / 2: Morocco / 3: Brazil / 4: Scotland
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
1: Haiti / 2: Morocco / 3: Scotland / 4: Brazil0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)1: Haiti / 2: Morocco / 3: Scotland / 4: Brazil0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Haiti / 2: Morocco / 3: Scotland / 4: Brazil
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Haiti / 2: Morocco / 3: Scotland / 4: Brazil
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Haiti / 2: Morocco / 3: Scotland / 4: Brazil
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
1: Haiti / 2: Scotland / 3: Brazil / 4: Morocco0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)1: Haiti / 2: Scotland / 3: Brazil / 4: Morocco0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Haiti / 2: Scotland / 3: Brazil / 4: Morocco
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Haiti / 2: Scotland / 3: Brazil / 4: Morocco
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Haiti / 2: Scotland / 3: Brazil / 4: Morocco
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
1: Morocco / 2: Haiti / 3: Brazil / 4: Scotland0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)1: Morocco / 2: Haiti / 3: Brazil / 4: Scotland0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Morocco / 2: Haiti / 3: Brazil / 4: Scotland
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Morocco / 2: Haiti / 3: Brazil / 4: Scotland
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Morocco / 2: Haiti / 3: Brazil / 4: Scotland
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
1: Scotland / 2: Haiti / 3: Brazil / 4: Morocco0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)1: Scotland / 2: Haiti / 3: Brazil / 4: Morocco0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Scotland / 2: Haiti / 3: Brazil / 4: Morocco
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Scotland / 2: Haiti / 3: Brazil / 4: Morocco
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Scotland / 2: Haiti / 3: Brazil / 4: Morocco
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
1: Scotland / 2: Haiti / 3: Morocco / 4: Brazil0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)1: Scotland / 2: Haiti / 3: Morocco / 4: Brazil0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Scotland / 2: Haiti / 3: Morocco / 4: Brazil
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Scotland / 2: Haiti / 3: Morocco / 4: Brazil
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Scotland / 2: Haiti / 3: Morocco / 4: Brazil
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
1: Scotland / 2: Morocco / 3: Haiti / 4: Brazil0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)1: Scotland / 2: Morocco / 3: Haiti / 4: Brazil0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Scotland / 2: Morocco / 3: Haiti / 4: Brazil
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1: Scotland / 2: Morocco / 3: Haiti / 4: Brazil
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1: Scotland / 2: Morocco / 3: Haiti / 4: Brazil
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Who resolves this market
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 1: Brazil / 2: Morocco / 3: Scotland / 4: Haiti
- 1: Morocco / 2: Brazil / 3: Scotland / 4: Haiti
- 1: Morocco / 2: Scotland / 3: Brazil / 4: Haiti
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "Group C: Exact Order". 1: Brazil / 2: Morocco / 3: Scotland / 4: Haiti last traded at 28.9%. Next is 1: Morocco / 2: Brazil / 3: Scotland / 4: Haiti at 18.8%. $43K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jul 12, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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