The Prediction Markets

Group E: Exact Order

Closed
Jul 12, 2026
Traded
$148K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jul 12, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
1: Germany / 2: Ivory Coast / 3: Ecuador / 4: Curacao
45.8%
Kalshi 63%(45.8% fair)polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Germany / 2: Ivory Coast / 3: Ecuador / 4: Curacao
Last price
63%
Fair, margin removed
45.8%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Ivory Coast / 2: Ecuador / 3: Germany / 4: Curacao
13.8%
Kalshi 19%(13.8% fair)polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Ivory Coast / 2: Ecuador / 3: Germany / 4: Curacao
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
13.8%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Ivory Coast / 2: Germany / 3: Ecuador / 4: Curacao
11.6%
Kalshi 16%(11.6% fair)polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Ivory Coast / 2: Germany / 3: Ecuador / 4: Curacao
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
11.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Ecuador / 2: Ivory Coast / 3: Germany / 4: Curacao
7.3%
Kalshi 10%(7.3% fair)polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Ecuador / 2: Ivory Coast / 3: Germany / 4: Curacao
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
7.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Germany / 2: Ivory Coast / 3: Ecuador / 4: Curacao
5.1%
Kalshi 7%(5.1% fair)polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Germany / 2: Ivory Coast / 3: Curacao / 4: Ecuador
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Germany / 2: Ecuador / 3: Ivory Coast / 4: Curacao
3.6%
Kalshi 5%(3.6% fair)polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Germany / 2: Ecuador / 3: Ivory Coast / 4: Curacao
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
3.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Ecuador / 2: Germany / 3: Ivory Coast / 4: Curacao
2.9%
Kalshi 4%(2.9% fair)polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Ecuador / 2: Germany / 3: Ivory Coast / 4: Curacao
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Germany / 2: Ecuador / 3: Curacao / 4: Ivory Coast
2.2%
Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Germany / 2: Ecuador / 3: Curacao / 4: Ivory Coast
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$925
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Germany / 2: Curacao / 3: Ecuador / 4: Ivory Coast
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.5% fair)polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Germany / 2: Curacao / 3: Ecuador / 4: Ivory Coast
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
1.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Ecuador / 2: Germany / 3: Curacao / 4: Ivory Coast
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Ecuador / 2: Germany / 3: Curacao / 4: Ivory Coast
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$101K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 14 more outcomes
1: Germany / 2: Curacao / 3: Ivory Coast / 4: Ecuador
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Germany / 2: Curacao / 3: Ivory Coast / 4: Ecuador
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Curacao / 2: Ecuador / 3: Germany / 4: Ivory Coast
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Curacao / 2: Ecuador / 3: Germany / 4: Ivory Coast
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Curacao / 2: Ecuador / 3: Ivory Coast / 4: Germany
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Curacao / 2: Ecuador / 3: Ivory Coast / 4: Germany
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Curacao / 2: Germany / 3: Ecuador / 4: Ivory Coast
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Curacao / 2: Germany / 3: Ecuador / 4: Ivory Coast
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Curacao / 2: Germany / 3: Ivory Coast / 4: Ecuador
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Curacao / 2: Germany / 3: Ivory Coast / 4: Ecuador
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Curacao / 2: Ivory Coast / 3: Germany / 4: Ecuador
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Curacao / 2: Ivory Coast / 3: Germany / 4: Ecuador
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Curacao / 2: Ivory Coast / 3: Germany / 4: Ecuador
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Curacao / 2: Ivory Coast / 3: Ecuador / 4: Germany
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Ecuador / 2: Curacao / 3: Germany / 4: Ivory Coast
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Ecuador / 2: Curacao / 3: Germany / 4: Ivory Coast
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Ecuador / 2: Curacao / 3: Ivory Coast / 4: Germany
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Ecuador / 2: Curacao / 3: Ivory Coast / 4: Germany
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Ecuador / 2: Ivory Coast / 3: Germany / 4: Curacao
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Ecuador / 2: Ivory Coast / 3: Curacao / 4: Germany
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Ivory Coast / 2: Curacao / 3: Germany / 4: Ecuador
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Ivory Coast / 2: Curacao / 3: Germany / 4: Ecuador
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Ivory Coast / 2: Curacao / 3: Germany / 4: Ecuador
0.3%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Ivory Coast / 2: Curacao / 3: Ecuador / 4: Germany
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Ivory Coast / 2: Ecuador / 3: Germany / 4: Curacao
0.3%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Ivory Coast / 2: Ecuador / 3: Curacao / 4: Germany
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1: Ivory Coast / 2: Germany / 3: Ecuador / 4: Curacao
0.3%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3039 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
1: Ivory Coast / 2: Germany / 3: Curacao / 4: Ecuador
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, FIFA

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 1: Germany / 2: Ivory Coast / 3: Ecuador / 4: Curacao
  • 1: Ivory Coast / 2: Ecuador / 3: Germany / 4: Curacao
  • 1: Ivory Coast / 2: Germany / 3: Ecuador / 4: Curacao

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Group E: Exact Order". 1: Germany / 2: Ivory Coast / 3: Ecuador / 4: Curacao last traded at 45.8%. Next is 1: Ivory Coast / 2: Ecuador / 3: Germany / 4: Curacao at 13.8%. $148K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jul 12, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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