The Prediction Markets

GTA VI Online released by...?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 51 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

June 30, 2027 67.2%

Next is December 31, 2026 at 32.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

June 30, 2027 67.2%December 31, 2026 32.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
June 30, 2027
67.2%
Polymarket 63.5%(67.2% fair)polled, 33s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
63.5%
Fair, margin removed
67.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31, 2026
32.8%
Polymarket 31%(32.8% fair)polled, 33s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
31%
Fair, margin removed
32.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$372
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • June 30, 2027
  • December 31, 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

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Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 2 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "GTA VI Online released by...?". June 30, 2027 leads at 67.2%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 32.8%. $1K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any form of online multiplayer for Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Online multiplayer” refers to any official mode in which multiple players can play Grand Theft Auto VI together online, whether as part of the base game or as a separate online title such as a new GTA Online. For the purposes of this market, “release” refers to the online multiplayer becoming publicly available for purchase, download, or play in the US. Open betas available to the general public will count. Closed betas, early access, technical tests, other forms of private or pre-release access, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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