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What the markets expect
Beatriz Mojica Morga 78.7%
Next is Carlos Reyes Torres at 4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Beatriz Mojica Morga78.7%88.4%78.7% fair88.2¢ bid, 88.5¢ askpolled, 52s ago88.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $113 (1.13x)Beatriz Mojica Morga78.7%Polymarket 88.4%(78.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 88.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $113 (1.13x)
Beatriz Mojica Morga
78.7%
88.4%
78.7% fair
88.2¢ bid, 88.5¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
88.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $113 (1.13x)
Beatriz Mojica Morga
78.7%
Polymarket 88.4%(78.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 88.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $113 (1.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Beatriz Mojica Morga
- Last price
- 88.4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 78.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 88.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 88.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $113 (1.13x)
- Volume
- $18K
Carlos Reyes Torres4%4.5%0.3¢ bid, 8.7¢ askpolled, 52s ago8.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)Carlos Reyes Torres4%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Carlos Reyes Torres
4%
4.5%
0.3¢ bid, 8.7¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
8.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Carlos Reyes Torres
4%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Carlos Reyes Torres
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,149 (11.5x)
- Volume
- $2K
Esthela Damián Peralta3.6%4%1.7¢ bid, 6.3¢ askpolled, 52s ago6.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)Esthela Damián Peralta3.6%Polymarket 4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Esthela Damián Peralta
3.6%
4%
1.7¢ bid, 6.3¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
6.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Esthela Damián Peralta
3.6%
Polymarket 4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Esthela Damián Peralta
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,587 (15.9x)
- Volume
- $33K
Manuel Añorve Baños3.4%3.8%1.2¢ bid, 6.4¢ askpolled, 52s ago6.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)Manuel Añorve Baños3.4%Polymarket 3.8%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Manuel Añorve Baños
3.4%
3.8%
1.2¢ bid, 6.4¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
6.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Manuel Añorve Baños
3.4%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Manuel Añorve Baños
- Last price
- 3.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,563 (15.6x)
- Volume
- $4K
Marcial Rodríguez Saldaña3.1%3.5%0.9¢ bid, 6.1¢ askpolled, 52s ago6.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)Marcial Rodríguez Saldaña3.1%Polymarket 3.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Marcial Rodríguez Saldaña
3.1%
3.5%
0.9¢ bid, 6.1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
6.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Marcial Rodríguez Saldaña
3.1%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Marcial Rodríguez Saldaña
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,639 (16.4x)
- Volume
- $2K
Karen Castrejón Trujillo0.8%0.9%0.2¢ bid, 1.5¢ askpolled, 52s ago1.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)Karen Castrejón Trujillo0.8%Polymarket 0.9%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Karen Castrejón Trujillo
0.8%
0.9%
0.2¢ bid, 1.5¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Karen Castrejón Trujillo
0.8%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Karen Castrejón Trujillo
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,667 (66.7x)
- Volume
- $3K
Mario Moreno Arcos0.7%0.8%0.4¢ bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)Mario Moreno Arcos0.7%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Mario Moreno Arcos
0.7%
0.8%
0.4¢ bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Mario Moreno Arcos
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mario Moreno Arcos
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $3K
Alberto López Rosas0.5%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 52s ago0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Alberto López Rosas0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Alberto López Rosas
0.5%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Alberto López Rosas
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alberto López Rosas
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $1K
Evodio Velázquez Aguirre0.5%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Evodio Velázquez Aguirre0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Evodio Velázquez Aguirre
0.5%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Evodio Velázquez Aguirre
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Evodio Velázquez Aguirre
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Gabriela Bernal Reséndiz0.5%0.6%0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 52s ago0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Gabriela Bernal Reséndiz0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Gabriela Bernal Reséndiz
0.5%
0.6%
0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Gabriela Bernal Reséndiz
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gabriela Bernal Reséndiz
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $2K
Show 18 more outcomesHide 18 outcomes
Gustavo Alarcón Herrera0.5%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Gustavo Alarcón Herrera0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Gustavo Alarcón Herrera
0.5%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Gustavo Alarcón Herrera
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gustavo Alarcón Herrera
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Héctor Astudillo Flores0.5%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Héctor Astudillo Flores0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Héctor Astudillo Flores
0.5%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Héctor Astudillo Flores
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Héctor Astudillo Flores
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Javier Saldaña Almazán0.5%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 52s ago0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Javier Saldaña Almazán0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Javier Saldaña Almazán
0.5%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Javier Saldaña Almazán
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Javier Saldaña Almazán
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $1K
Norma Otilia Hernández Martínez0.5%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Norma Otilia Hernández Martínez0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Norma Otilia Hernández Martínez
0.5%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Norma Otilia Hernández Martínez
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Norma Otilia Hernández Martínez
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Rogelio Ortega Martínez0.5%0.6%0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 52s ago0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Rogelio Ortega Martínez0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Rogelio Ortega Martínez
0.5%
0.6%
0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Rogelio Ortega Martínez
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rogelio Ortega Martínez
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $1K
Rubén Cayetano García0.5%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Rubén Cayetano García0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Rubén Cayetano García
0.5%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Rubén Cayetano García
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rubén Cayetano García
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Guadalupe Eguiluz0.4%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 52s ago0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)Guadalupe Eguiluz0.4%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Guadalupe Eguiluz
0.4%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Guadalupe Eguiluz
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Guadalupe Eguiluz
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $2K
Félix Salgado Macedonio0.2%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 52s ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Félix Salgado Macedonio0.2%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Félix Salgado Macedonio
0.2%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Félix Salgado Macedonio
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Félix Salgado Macedonio
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $1K
Abelina López Rodríguez0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 52s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Abelina López Rodríguez0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Abelina López Rodríguez
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Abelina López Rodríguez
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Abelina López Rodríguez
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1K
Alejandro Bravo Abarca0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 52s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Alejandro Bravo Abarca0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Alejandro Bravo Abarca
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Alejandro Bravo Abarca
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alejandro Bravo Abarca
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1K
Erika Lorena Lührs0.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 52s ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Erika Lorena Lührs0.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Erika Lorena Lührs
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Erika Lorena Lührs
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Erika Lorena Lührs
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $2K
Julián López Galeana0.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 52s ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Julián López Galeana0.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Julián López Galeana
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Julián López Galeana
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Julián López Galeana
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $2K
Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros0.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 52s ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros0.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $5K
Yesenia Galarza Castro0.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 52s ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Yesenia Galarza Castro0.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Yesenia Galarza Castro
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Yesenia Galarza Castro
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yesenia Galarza Castro
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $1K
Eloy Salmerón Díaz0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 52s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Eloy Salmerón Díaz0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Eloy Salmerón Díaz
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Eloy Salmerón Díaz
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Eloy Salmerón Díaz
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $829
Genaro Vázquez Flores0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 52s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Genaro Vázquez Flores0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Genaro Vázquez Flores
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Genaro Vázquez Flores
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Genaro Vázquez Flores
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $405
Iván Hernández Díaz0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 52s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Iván Hernández Díaz0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Iván Hernández Díaz
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Iván Hernández Díaz
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Iván Hernández Díaz
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $817
Zeferino Gómez Valdovinos0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 52s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Zeferino Gómez Valdovinos0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Zeferino Gómez Valdovinos
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Zeferino Gómez Valdovinos
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Zeferino Gómez Valdovinos
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $604
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Beatriz Mojica Morga
- Carlos Reyes Torres
- Esthela Damián Peralta
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Guerrero Governor Election Winner". Beatriz Mojica Morga leads at 78.7%. Next is Carlos Reyes Torres at 4%. $96K has traded across 28 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 7, 2027.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Guerrero on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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