The Prediction Markets

Gustave Caillebotte's Portrait de Paul Hugot: Sale price

Closed
Jun 25, 2026
Traded
$15K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 25, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 125 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above $4.6M
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.6M
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.8M
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.8M
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$469
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5M
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5M
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.2M
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.2M
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$819
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.4M
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.4M
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$404
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.2M
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.2M
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.6M
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.6M
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$893
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.8M
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.8M
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6M
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6M
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Sotheby’s

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $4.6M
  • Above $4.8M
  • Above $5M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Gustave Caillebotte's Portrait de Paul Hugot: Sale price". Above $4.6M last traded at 91%. Next is Above $4.8M at 90%. $15K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jun 25, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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