The Prediction Markets

Hamilton mayoral election winner?

Closes
Oct 26, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Keanin Loomis 48.8%

Next is Andrea Horwath at 21.9%. The venues differ most on Keanin Loomis (Polymarket 49%, Kalshi 64%), a 15-point gap.

Keanin Loomis 48.8%Andrea Horwath 21.9%Rob Cooper 15.3%David Harrison 2%David Mark Cherkewski 2%8 others 10%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Keanin Loomis
48.8%
Polymarket 49%polled, 29s agoKalshi 64%(50.6% fair)polled, 29s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keanin Loomis
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Keanin Loomis
Last price
64%
Fair, margin removed
50.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$402
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 56¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 59¢.

Andrea Horwath
21.9%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 29s agoKalshi 23%(18.2% fair)polled, 29s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrea Horwath
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrea Horwath
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
18.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$625
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 21¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 23¢.

Rob Cooper
15.3%
Polymarket 17.3%polled, 29s agoKalshi 13%(10.3% fair)polled, 29s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rob Cooper
Last price
17.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rob Cooper
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
10.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$293
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 13¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 21¢.

David Harrison
2%
Kalshi 2.5%(2% fair)polled, 29s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Harrison
Last price
2.5%
Fair, margin removed
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
David Mark Cherkewski
2%
Kalshi 2.5%(2% fair)polled, 29s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Mark Cherkewski
Last price
2.5%
Fair, margin removed
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Erin Janus
2%
Kalshi 2.5%(2% fair)polled, 29s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Erin Janus
Last price
2.5%
Fair, margin removed
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kevin Walker
1.9%
Kalshi 2.5%(2% fair)polled, 29s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Walker
Last price
2.5%
Fair, margin removed
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ejaz Butt
1.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 29s agoKalshi 5%(4% fair)polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ejaz Butt
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$446
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ejaz Butt
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Sasha Austin
1.1%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 29s agoKalshi 2.5%(2% fair)polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sasha Austin
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sasha Austin
Last price
2.5%
Fair, margin removed
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Nathalie Xian Yi Yan
1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 29s agoKalshi 2.5%(2% fair)polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nathalie Xian Yi Yan
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$461
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nathalie Xian Yi Yan
Last price
2.5%
Fair, margin removed
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Show 3 more outcomes
Pamela Mitchell
1%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 29s agoKalshi 2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pamela Mitchell
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$636
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pamela Mitchell
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Scarlett Gillespie
1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 29s agoKalshi 2.5%(2% fair)polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scarlett Gillespie
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Scarlett Gillespie
Last price
2.5%
Fair, margin removed
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Paul Fromm
0.9%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 29s agoKalshi 2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Fromm
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$745
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Fromm
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: City of Hamilton City Clerk
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Keanin Loomis
  • Andrea Horwath
  • Rob Cooper

Live prices for Keanin Loomis

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Hamilton mayoral election winner?". Keanin Loomis leads at 48.8%. Next is Andrea Horwath at 21.9%. $24K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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