The Prediction Markets

Harvard federal sponsored revenue in FY2026?

Closed
Oct 15, 2026
Traded
$41K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Oct 15, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 15 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 650 million
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 369 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 650 million
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 600 million
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 369 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 600 million
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 700 million
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 369 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 700 million
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 750 million
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 369 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 750 million
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 800 million
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 369 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 800 million
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 850 million
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 369 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 850 million
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 900 million
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 369 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 900 million
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1 billion
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 369 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1 billion
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 950 million
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 369 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 950 million
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Harvard University Financial Administration

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 650 million
  • Above 600 million
  • Above 700 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Harvard federal sponsored revenue in FY2026?". Above 650 million last traded at 93%. Next is Above 600 million at 90%. $41K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Oct 15, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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