The Prediction Markets

Hawaii Governor General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 330K 90%

Next is Above 310K at 89%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 330K
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 330K
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 310K
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 310K
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 350K
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 350K
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 370K
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 370K
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$402
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 390K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 390K
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$517
Trade this on Kalshi
400K-430K
44.9%
Polymarket 44.9%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 55.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $180 (1.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
400K-430K
Last price
44.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55.5¢
Sell Yes
34.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$180 (1.80x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 410K
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 410K
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
430K-460K
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
430K-460K
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 430K
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 430K
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 450K
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 450K
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
340K-370K
14.6%
Polymarket 14.6%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 25.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $392 (3.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
340K-370K
Last price
14.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25.5¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$392 (3.92x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
490K+
13.9%
Polymarket 13.9%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 17.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $562 (5.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
490K+
Last price
13.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.8¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$562 (5.62x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
370K-400K
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
370K-400K
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 490K
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 490K
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 470K
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 470K
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Kalshi
460K-490K
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
460K-490K
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
310K
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
310K
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
310K-340K
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
310K-340K
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Hawaii Office of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 330K
  • Above 310K
  • Above 350K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 330K for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Hawaii Governor General Election: voter turnout". Above 330K leads at 90%. Next is Above 310K at 89%. $27K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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