The Prediction Markets

Hawaii Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Green, 14+ pts 96.4%

Next is Green, 20+ pts at 95.7%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Green, 14+ pts
96.4%
Kalshi 96.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Green, 14+ pts
Last price
96.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Green, 20+ pts
95.7%
Kalshi 95.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Green, 20+ pts
Last price
95.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Green, 17+ pts
93.8%
Kalshi 93.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Green, 17+ pts
Last price
93.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Green, 23+ pts
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Green, 23+ pts
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Green, 26+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Green, 26+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Kalshi
Green, 29+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Green, 29+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Kalshi
Green, 32+ pts
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Green, 32+ pts
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$626
Trade this on Kalshi
Green, 35+ pts
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Green, 35+ pts
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$642
Trade this on Kalshi
Green, 38+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Green, 38+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$79
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35-40%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Green, 41+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Green, 41+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 40-45%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Green, 44+ pts
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Green, 44+ pts
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-10%
7.7%
Polymarket 7.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $671 (6.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-10%
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$671 (6.71x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45%+
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45%+
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$920
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Hawaii Office of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Green, 14+ pts
  • Green, 20+ pts
  • Green, 17+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Green, 14+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Hawaii Governor margin of victory". Green, 14+ pts leads at 96.4%. Next is Green, 20+ pts at 95.7%. $26K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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