The Prediction Markets

Hawaii's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Tokuda, 20+ pts 92%

Next is Tokuda, 23+ pts at 90.1%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Tokuda, 20+ pts
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 97.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tokuda, 20+ pts
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.7¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$887
Trade this on Kalshi
Tokuda, 23+ pts
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 97.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tokuda, 23+ pts
Last price
90.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.7¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$469
Trade this on Kalshi
Tokuda, 26+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 95.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tokuda, 26+ pts
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.4¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$711
Trade this on Kalshi
Tokuda, 29+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tokuda, 29+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$493
Trade this on Kalshi
Tokuda, 32+ pts
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tokuda, 32+ pts
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tokuda, 35+ pts
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tokuda, 35+ pts
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$472
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
30.1%
Polymarket 30.1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 30.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $325 (3.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
30.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30.8¢
Sell Yes
29.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$325 (3.25x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tokuda, 38+ pts
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tokuda, 38+ pts
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Tokuda, 41+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tokuda, 41+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40-45%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Tokuda, 44+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tokuda, 44+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35-40%
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45-50%
11.7%
Polymarket 11.7%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 12.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $800 (8.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
11.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.5¢
Sell Yes
10.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$800 (8.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 13.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $746 (7.46x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.4¢
Sell Yes
9.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$746 (7.46x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-20%
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-20%
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$826
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 50%+
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50%+
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$961
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$947
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-10%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-10%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$695
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tokuda, 20+ pts
  • Tokuda, 23+ pts
  • Tokuda, 26+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Tokuda, 20+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Hawaii's 2nd District margin of victory". Tokuda, 20+ pts leads at 92%. Next is Tokuda, 23+ pts at 90.1%. $27K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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