The Prediction Markets

Heat vs. Hornets

Starts in 40 hKickoff
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Miami 58.8%

Next is Odd/Even Score at 50%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Miami
58.8%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 38s agoKalshi 59%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Heat vs. Hornets
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Miami
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 58¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 59¢.

Odd/Even Score
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Odd/Even Score
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Overtime?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Overtime?
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Race to 10
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Race to 10
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Race to 20
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Race to 20
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Race to 30
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Race to 30
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Team to Score First
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Team to Score First
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Charlotte
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charlotte
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$1000
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Same bet: both pay the winner of the game

Ties: both venues pay 50/50.

Only differs in an edge case

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: nba.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Ties: both venues pay 50/50.
  • Trading closes Oct 24, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Miami
  • Odd/Even Score
  • Overtime?

Live prices for Miami

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Heat vs. Hornets". Miami leads at 58.8%. Next is Odd/Even Score at 50%. $5K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2026.

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 6:00PM ET: If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the Hornets win, the market will resolve to "Hornets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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