The Prediction Markets

Heavy Is The Crown: First Week Album Equivalent Units

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 15K 72%

Next is Above 20K at 50%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 15K
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15K
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$249
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20K
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$446
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 25K
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 25K
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$209
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 30K
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 30K
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 35K
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 35K
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$234
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 40K
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 40K
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Luminate

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 15K
  • Above 20K
  • Above 25K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Heavy Is The Crown: First Week Album Equivalent Units". Above 15K leads at 72%. Next is Above 20K at 50%. $2K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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