The Prediction Markets

Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2027?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
13 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Ciryl Gane 60%

Next is Josh Hokit at 50%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 13 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Ciryl Gane
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ciryl Gane
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 13 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Hokit
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Hokit
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 13 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Curtis Blaydes
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Curtis Blaydes
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 13 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jailton Almeida
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jailton Almeida
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 13 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Marcin Tybura
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marcin Tybura
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 13 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 13 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Aspinall
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Aspinall
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 13 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Kalshi
Sergei Pavlovich
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sergei Pavlovich
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 13 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$197
Trade this on Kalshi
Alex Pereira
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Pereira
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 13 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexander Volkov
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexander Volkov
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 13 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Jones
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Jones
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 13 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$315
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: MMA Fighting, Fox Sports, ESPN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ciryl Gane
  • Josh Hokit
  • Curtis Blaydes

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2027?". Ciryl Gane leads at 60%. Next is Josh Hokit at 50%. $3K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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