The Prediction Markets

Highest Mt. Washington wind speed in October?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 7 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 min ago
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What the markets expect

110 mph 99.5%

Next is 105 mph at 98.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
110 mph
99.5%
Polymarket 99.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
110 mph
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
99¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$255
Trade this on Polymarket
105 mph
98.5%
Polymarket 98.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
105 mph
Last price
98.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99.5¢
Sell Yes
97.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$254
Trade this on Polymarket
100 mph
89.6%
Polymarket 89.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
100 mph
Last price
89.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99.5¢
Sell Yes
79.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$130
Trade this on Polymarket
95 mph
88.5%
Polymarket 88.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
95 mph
Last price
88.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
77.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Polymarket
115 mph
57%
Polymarket 57%polled, 3 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
115 mph
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
14¢
Volume
$210
Trade this on Polymarket
120 mph
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
120 mph
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
125 mph
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
125 mph
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 110 mph
  • 105 mph
  • 100 mph

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Highest Mt. Washington wind speed in October?". 110 mph leads at 99.5%. Next is 105 mph at 98.5%. $1K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the highest wind speed, in miles per hour, reported on the summit of Mt. Washington in New Hampshire in October, 2026. The resolution source will be data published by the Mt. Washington Weather Observatory. F6 reports containing daily wind speed recordings can be found here: https://mountwashington.org/weather/mount-washington-weather-archives/monthly-f6/. The resolution source for this market measures wind speeds to whole mile per hour (eg, 67mph). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to the wind speed recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following month has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. In the case of missing data from the Mt. Washington Weather Observatory, this market will remain open until the last calendar day of the following month, to allow for publication. If the Mt. Washington Weather Observatory has not published the relevant data by the last calendar day of the following month, this market will resolve to No. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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