The Prediction Markets

Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

At least 60% 83%

Next is At least 65% at 75%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 60%
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 60%
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 65%
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 65%
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 70%
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 70%
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 75%
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 75%
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 80%
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 80%
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 85%
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 85%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$701
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 90%
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 90%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$701
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 95%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 95%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Humanity's Last Exam

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 60%
  • At least 65%
  • At least 70%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027?". At least 60% leads at 83%. Next is At least 65% at 75%. $17K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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