The Prediction Markets

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 22, 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$59K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

86° to 87° 95.7%

Next is 88° to 89° at 1%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

86° to 87° 95.7%88° to 89° 1%83° or below 1%92° or above 1%84° to 85° 0.5%4 others 0.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
86° to 87°
95.7%
Polymarket 98.9%(96.5% fair)polled, 59s agoKalshi 99%(94.9% fair)polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
86-87°F
Last price
98.9%
Fair, margin removed
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
97.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
86° to 87°
Last price
99%
Fair, margin removed
94.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 99¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 99.8¢.

88° to 89°
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 59s agoKalshi 1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
88-89°F
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
88° to 89°
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

83° or below
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
83° or below
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
92° or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
92° or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$593
Trade this on Kalshi
84° to 85°
0.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 59s agoKalshi 1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
84-85°F
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
84° to 85°
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

90° to 91°
0.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 59s agoKalshi 1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
90-91°F
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
90° to 91°
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

75°F or below
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
75°F or below
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$185
Trade this on Polymarket
76-77°F
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
76-77°F
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$185
Trade this on Polymarket
78-79°F
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
78-79°F
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Polymarket
80-81°F
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
80-81°F
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
82-83°F
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
82-83°F
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
92-93°F
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
92-93°F
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$269
Trade this on Polymarket
94°F or higher
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
94°F or higher
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$185
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the station; Polymarket on the highest/lowest hourly reading in NOAA's station time series. The CLI extreme can fall between hourly readings, so the two can differ by a degree or more on the same day.
  • Matched only when both venues name the same station (Kalshi CLI code = Polymarket NOAA site); NYC (Central Park vs LaGuardia), Chicago (Midway vs O'Hare), Dallas (DFW vs Love Field) and Denver (DEN vs Buckley) are different stations and are not matched.
  • Bucket grids are often offset by one degree; only identical integer ranges are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 22, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 23, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: weather.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Weather Company
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the station; Polymarket on the highest/lowest hourly reading in NOAA's station time series. The CLI extreme can fall between hourly readings, so the two can differ by a degree or more on the same day.
  • Matched only when both venues name the same station (Kalshi CLI code = Polymarket NOAA site); NYC (Central Park vs LaGuardia), Chicago (Midway vs O'Hare), Dallas (DFW vs Love Field) and Denver (DEN vs Buckley) are different stations and are not matched.
  • Bucket grids are often offset by one degree; only identical integer ranges are linked.
  • Trading closes Oct 22, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 23, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 86° to 87°
  • 88° to 89°
  • 83° or below

Live prices for 86° to 87°

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 22, 2026?". 86° to 87° leads at 95.7%. Next is 88° to 89° at 1%. $59K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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