What are the odds of 74°F or higher in Highest temperature in Chicago on April 13??

74°F or higher last traded at 87% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 72-73°F in Highest temperature in Chicago on April 13??

72-73°F last traded at 9.5% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 70-71°F in Highest temperature in Chicago on April 13??

70-71°F last traded at 0.9% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 68-69°F in Highest temperature in Chicago on April 13??

68-69°F last traded at 0.8% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 66-67°F in Highest temperature in Chicago on April 13??

66-67°F last traded at 0.5% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 62-63°F in Highest temperature in Chicago on April 13??

62-63°F last traded at 0.4% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 64-65°F in Highest temperature in Chicago on April 13??

64-65°F last traded at 0.3% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 55°F or below in Highest temperature in Chicago on April 13??

55°F or below last traded at 0.2% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 56-57°F in Highest temperature in Chicago on April 13??

56-57°F last traded at 0.2% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 58-59°F in Highest temperature in Chicago on April 13??

58-59°F last traded at 0.1% before the market closed.

Highest temperature in Chicago on April 13?

Closed: Apr 13, 2026
Traded: $24K
Venues: Polymarket

This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 13, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 195 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

Polymarket

Outcome

Fair chance

Venue prices on a 0–100% scale

Polymarket

Best Yes price

74°F or higher

87%

88%

87% fair

86¢ bid, 90¢ ask

polled, 4703 h ago

90¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $111 (1.11x)

74°F or higher

87%

Polymarket 88%(87% fair)polled, 4703 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)

Polymarket

Contract: 74°F or higher
Last price: 88%
Fair, margin removed: 87%
As of: Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes: 90¢
Sell Yes: 86¢
$100 on Yes pays: $111 (1.11x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

72-73°F

9.5%

9.6%

6.6¢ bid, 12.6¢ ask

polled, 4703 h ago

12.6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $794 (7.94x)

72-73°F

9.5%

Polymarket 9.6%polled, 4703 h agoBest Yes 12.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $794 (7.94x)

Polymarket

Contract: 72-73°F
Last price: 9.6%
As of: Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes: 12.6¢
Sell Yes: 6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $794 (7.94x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

70-71°F

0.9%

0.8¢ bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 4703 h ago

1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

70-71°F

0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%polled, 4703 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: 70-71°F
Last price: 0.9%
As of: Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

68-69°F

0.8%

0.6¢ bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 4703 h ago

1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

68-69°F

0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%polled, 4703 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: 68-69°F
Last price: 0.8%
As of: Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

66-67°F

0.5%

0.6%

0.3¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask

polled, 4703 h ago

0.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $12,500 (125x)

66-67°F

0.5%

Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4703 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)

Polymarket

Contract: 66-67°F
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes: 0.8¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $12,500 (125x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

62-63°F

0.4%

0.5%

0.2¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask

polled, 4703 h ago

0.7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $14,286 (143x)

62-63°F

0.4%

Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4703 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)

Polymarket

Contract: 62-63°F
Last price: 0.5%
As of: Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes: 0.7¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $14,286 (143x)
Volume: $2K

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64-65°F

0.3%

0.2¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask

polled, 4703 h ago

0.4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $25,000 (250x)

64-65°F

0.3%

Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4703 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)

Polymarket

Contract: 64-65°F
Last price: 0.3%
As of: Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes: 0.4¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $25,000 (250x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

55°F or below

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 4703 h ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

55°F or below

0.2%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4703 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: 55°F or below
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Polymarket

56-57°F

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 4703 h ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

56-57°F

0.2%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4703 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: 56-57°F
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

58-59°F

0.1%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 4703 h ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

58-59°F

0.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4703 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: 58-59°F
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

60-61°F

0.1%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 4703 h ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

60-61°F

0.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4703 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: 60-61°F
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket resolves via:: UMA optimistic oracle, source: wunderground.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

74°F or higher
72-73°F
70-71°F

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Highest temperature in Chicago on April 13?". 74°F or higher last traded at 87%. Next is 72-73°F at 9.5%. $24K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Odds by venue

Who resolves this market

How the odds have moved

About this market

Questions

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