The Prediction Markets

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 23?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$14K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

31°C 45.1%

Next is 30°C at 29.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

31°C 45.1%30°C 29.3%32°C 16.3%29°C 6.6%33°C 0.9%5 others 1.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
31°C
45.1%
Polymarket 47%(45.1% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
31°C
Last price
47%
Fair, margin removed
45.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
30°C
29.3%
Polymarket 30.5%(29.3% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
30°C
Last price
30.5%
Fair, margin removed
29.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
32°C
16.3%
Polymarket 17%(16.3% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
32°C
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
16.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
29°C
6.6%
Polymarket 6.9%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
29°C
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
6.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
33°C
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
33°C
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
28°C
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
28°C
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
27°C or below
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
27°C or below
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$84
Trade this on Polymarket
35°C
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
35°C
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$516
Trade this on Polymarket
34°C
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
34°C
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$457
Trade this on Polymarket
36°C
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
36°C
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$260
Trade this on Polymarket
37°C or higher
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
37°C or higher
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 31°C
  • 30°C
  • 32°C

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 23?". 31°C leads at 45.1%. Next is 30°C at 29.3%. $14K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. That initial publication is the revisions cutoff. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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