The Prediction Markets

Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 1?

FinalKickoff
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 175 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
11°C
57.9%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 4218 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
11°C
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$830
Trade this on Polymarket
12°C
34.7%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 4218 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
12°C
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$398
Trade this on Polymarket
13°C
6.1%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 4218 h agoBest Yes 10.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $971 (9.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
13°C
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
10.3¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$971 (9.71x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
14°C
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 4218 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
14°C
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
15°C
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4218 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
15°C
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$960
Trade this on Polymarket
16°C
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4218 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
16°C
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$429
Trade this on Polymarket
17°C or higher
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4218 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
17°C or higher
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$355
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 11°C
  • 12°C
  • 13°C

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 1?". 11°C last traded at 57.9%. Next is 12°C at 34.7%. $24K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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