The Prediction Markets

Highest temperature in London on April 12?

Closed
Apr 12, 2026
Traded
$35K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 12, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 196 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
14°C
40.9%
Polymarket 42%(40.9% fair)polled, 4707 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
14°C
Last price
42%
Fair, margin removed
40.9%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
15°C
30.7%
Polymarket 31.5%(30.7% fair)polled, 4707 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
15°C
Last price
31.5%
Fair, margin removed
30.7%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
13°C
14.1%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 4707 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
13°C
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
16°C
7.4%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, 4707 h agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
16°C
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
12°C
2.9%
Polymarket 3%polled, 4707 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
12°C
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
17°C
1.2%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 4707 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
17°C
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
11°C
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 4707 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
11°C
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
18°C or higher
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 4707 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
18°C or higher
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
8°C or below
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4707 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
8°C or below
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
10°C
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4707 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
10°C
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
9°C
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4707 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
9°C
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: wunderground.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 14°C
  • 15°C
  • 13°C

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Highest temperature in London on April 12?". 14°C last traded at 40.9%. Next is 15°C at 30.7%. $35K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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