The Prediction Markets

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 22?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$84K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

70-71°F 43.6%

Next is 68-69°F at 28.4%. The venues differ most on 70-71°F (Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 56%), a 25-point gap.

70-71°F 43.6%68-69°F 28.4%72° or above 15%66-67°F 6.9%72-73°F 3.9%5 others 2.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
70-71°F
43.6%
Polymarket 31.5%(27.1% fair)polled, 5 h agoKalshi 56%(50.9% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
70-71°F
Last price
31.5%
Fair, margin removed
27.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
70° to 71°
Last price
56%
Fair, margin removed
50.9%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

68-69°F
28.4%
Polymarket 46%(39.6% fair)polled, 5 h agoKalshi 26%(23.6% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
68-69°F
Last price
46%
Fair, margin removed
39.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
68° to 69°
Last price
26%
Fair, margin removed
23.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

72° or above
15%
Kalshi 16%(14.5% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
72° or above
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
14.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
66-67°F
6.9%
Polymarket 15.5%(13.3% fair)polled, 5 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
66-67°F
Last price
15.5%
Fair, margin removed
13.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
66° to 67°
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

72-73°F
3.9%
Polymarket 4.4%(3.7% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
72-73°F
Last price
4.4%
Fair, margin removed
3.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
63° or below
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
63° or below
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
64-65°F
0.7%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
64-65°F
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$442
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
64° to 65°
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

74°F or higher
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
74°F or higher
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$665
Trade this on Polymarket
55°F or below
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
55°F or below
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
56-57°F
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
56-57°F
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
58-59°F
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
58-59°F
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
60-61°F
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
60-61°F
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$933
Trade this on Polymarket
62-63°F
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
62-63°F
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 5 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the station; Polymarket on the highest/lowest hourly reading in NOAA's station time series. The CLI extreme can fall between hourly readings, so the two can differ by a degree or more on the same day.
  • Matched only when both venues name the same station (Kalshi CLI code = Polymarket NOAA site); NYC (Central Park vs LaGuardia), Chicago (Midway vs O'Hare), Dallas (DFW vs Love Field) and Denver (DEN vs Buckley) are different stations and are not matched.
  • Bucket grids are often offset by one degree; only identical integer ranges are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 22, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 23, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: weather.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Weather Company
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the station; Polymarket on the highest/lowest hourly reading in NOAA's station time series. The CLI extreme can fall between hourly readings, so the two can differ by a degree or more on the same day.
  • Matched only when both venues name the same station (Kalshi CLI code = Polymarket NOAA site); NYC (Central Park vs LaGuardia), Chicago (Midway vs O'Hare), Dallas (DFW vs Love Field) and Denver (DEN vs Buckley) are different stations and are not matched.
  • Bucket grids are often offset by one degree; only identical integer ranges are linked.
  • Trading closes Oct 22, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 23, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 70-71°F
  • 68-69°F
  • 72° or above

Live prices for 70-71°F

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Top of book

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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 22?". 70-71°F leads at 43.6%. Next is 68-69°F at 28.4%. $84K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 22, 2026.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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