The Prediction Markets

Highest temperature in Madrid on May 1?

FinalKickoff
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 175 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
25°C
46.9%
Polymarket 49%(46.9% fair)polled, 4219 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
25°C
Last price
49%
Fair, margin removed
46.9%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
24°C
22.5%
Polymarket 23.5%(22.5% fair)polled, 4219 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
24°C
Last price
23.5%
Fair, margin removed
22.5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
26°C
20.5%
Polymarket 21.5%(20.6% fair)polled, 4219 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
26°C
Last price
21.5%
Fair, margin removed
20.6%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
23°C
4.1%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 4219 h agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
23°C
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
27°C
3.8%
Polymarket 4%polled, 4219 h agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
27°C
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
22°C
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 4219 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
22°C
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
28°C
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4219 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
28°C
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
21°C
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4219 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
21°C
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
20°C
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4219 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
20°C
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$497
Trade this on Polymarket
29°C or higher
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4219 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
29°C or higher
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
19°C or below
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4219 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
19°C or below
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$875
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: wunderground.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 25°C
  • 24°C
  • 26°C

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Highest temperature in Madrid on May 1?". 25°C last traded at 46.9%. Next is 24°C at 22.5%. $23K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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