The Prediction Markets

Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 13, 2026?

Closes
Nov 14, 2026, in 16 hours
Traded
$278K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
14 min ago
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What the markets expect

52° to 53° 64.2%

Next is 49° or below at 22.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

52° to 53° 64.2%49° or below 22.6%50° to 51° 10.4%54° to 55° 1%56° to 57° 0.9%58° or above 0.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 14 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
52° to 53°
64.2%
Kalshi 68%(64.2% fair)polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
52° to 53°
Last price
68%
Fair, margin removed
64.2%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$108K
Trade this on Kalshi
49° or below
22.6%
Kalshi 24%(22.6% fair)polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
49° or below
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
22.6%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$89K
Trade this on Kalshi
50° to 51°
10.4%
Kalshi 11%(10.4% fair)polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
50° to 51°
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
10.4%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Kalshi
54° to 55°
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
54° to 55°
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
56° to 57°
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
56° to 57°
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$776
Trade this on Kalshi
58° or above
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
58° or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Weather Company

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 52° to 53°
  • 49° or below
  • 50° to 51°

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 13, 2026?". 52° to 53° leads at 64.2%. Next is 49° or below at 22.6%. $278K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 14, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 13, 2026? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets