The Prediction Markets

Highest temperature in San Diego on Oct 22, 2026?

Closes
Oct 23, 2026, in 10 hours
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

72° to 73° 86.8%

Next is 74° to 75° at 9.4%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

72° to 73° 86.8%74° to 75° 9.4%67° or below 1%68° to 69° 1%70° to 71° 0.9%76° or above 0.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
72° to 73°
86.8%
Kalshi 92%(86.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
72° to 73°
Last price
92%
Fair, margin removed
86.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$651
Trade this on Kalshi
74° to 75°
9.4%
Kalshi 10%(9.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
74° to 75°
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
9.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$674
Trade this on Kalshi
67° or below
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
67° or below
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$131
Trade this on Kalshi
68° to 69°
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
68° to 69°
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$379
Trade this on Kalshi
70° to 71°
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
70° to 71°
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Kalshi
76° or above
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
76° or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$705
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Weather Company

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 72° to 73°
  • 74° to 75°
  • 67° or below

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Highest temperature in San Diego on Oct 22, 2026?". 72° to 73° leads at 86.8%. Next is 74° to 75° at 9.4%. $3K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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