The Prediction Markets

Highest temperature in San Francisco on Oct 22, 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$38K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

62-63°F 64%

Next is 63° to 64° at 59%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
62-63°F
64%
Polymarket 64%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
62-63°F
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
63° to 64°
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
63° to 64°
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
62° or below
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
62° or below
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
60-61°F
25.8%
Polymarket 25.8%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 41.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $239 (2.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
60-61°F
Last price
25.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41.8¢
Sell Yes
9.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$239 (2.39x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
64-65°F
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
64-65°F
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
66-67°F
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
66-67°F
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
65° to 66°
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
65° to 66°
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
67° to 68°
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
67° to 68°
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
69° to 70°
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
69° to 70°
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$954
Trade this on Kalshi
71° or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
71° or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
68-69°F
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
68-69°F
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
70-71°F
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
70-71°F
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$529
Trade this on Polymarket
72-73°F
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
72-73°F
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$834
Trade this on Polymarket
74°F or higher
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
74°F or higher
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Polymarket
55°F or below
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
55°F or below
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Polymarket
56-57°F
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
56-57°F
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
58-59°F
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
58-59°F
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$313
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: weather.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Weather Company

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 62-63°F
  • 63° to 64°
  • 62° or below

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 62-63°F for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Highest temperature in San Francisco on Oct 22, 2026?". 62-63°F leads at 64%. Next is 63° to 64° at 59%. $38K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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