The Prediction Markets

Highest temperature in San Francisco on Oct 25, 2026?

Closes
Oct 26, 2026, in 1 day
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
21 min ago
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What the markets expect

69° to 70° 41.8%

Next is 71° to 72° at 26.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

69° to 70° 41.8%71° to 72° 26.2%67° to 68° 20.4%66° or below 5.8%73° to 74° 3.9%75° or above 1.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 21 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
69° to 70°
41.8%
Kalshi 43%(41.7% fair)polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
69° to 70°
Last price
43%
Fair, margin removed
41.7%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Kalshi
71° to 72°
26.2%
Kalshi 27%(26.2% fair)polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
71° to 72°
Last price
27%
Fair, margin removed
26.2%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$387
Trade this on Kalshi
67° to 68°
20.4%
Kalshi 21%(20.4% fair)polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
67° to 68°
Last price
21%
Fair, margin removed
20.4%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$389
Trade this on Kalshi
66° or below
5.8%
Kalshi 6%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
66° or below
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$171
Trade this on Kalshi
73° to 74°
3.9%
Kalshi 4%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
73° to 74°
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$441
Trade this on Kalshi
75° or above
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
75° or above
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$133
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Weather Company

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 69° to 70°
  • 71° to 72°
  • 67° to 68°

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Highest temperature in San Francisco on Oct 25, 2026?". 69° to 70° leads at 41.8%. Next is 71° to 72° at 26.2%. $2K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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