The Prediction Markets

Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 11?

Closed
Apr 11, 2026
Traded
$22K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 11, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 195 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
11°C
41.4%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 4701 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
11°C
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
12°C
35.4%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 4701 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
12°C
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
10°C
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 4701 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
10°C
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
13°C
7.4%
Polymarket 7.4%polled, 4701 h agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
13°C
Last price
7.4%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
9°C
1.7%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 4701 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
9°C
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
14°C
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 4701 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
14°C
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
8°C
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4701 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
8°C
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
15°C
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 4701 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
15°C
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
7°C or below
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4701 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
7°C or below
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
16°C
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4701 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
16°C
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
17°C or higher
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4701 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
17°C or higher
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$533
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: wunderground.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 11°C
  • 12°C
  • 10°C

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 11?". 11°C last traded at 41.4%. Next is 12°C at 35.4%. $22K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 11, 2026.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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