The Prediction Markets

Hiroshima vs Shimizu: Spread

Starts in 1 h 22 minKickoff
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 70%

Next is Hiroshima wins by more than 1.5 goals at 46%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
70%
Polymarket 70%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hiroshima wins by more than 1.5 goals
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hiroshima wins by more than 1.5 goals
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$544
Trade this on Kalshi
Hiroshima wins by more than 2.5 goals
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hiroshima wins by more than 2.5 goals
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$564
Trade this on Kalshi
Draw (Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shimizu S-Pulse)
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Draw (Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shimizu S-Pulse)
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Shimizu S-Pulse
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shimizu S-Pulse
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Polymarket
Shimizu wins by more than 1.5 goals
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shimizu wins by more than 1.5 goals
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Shimizu wins by more than 2.5 goals
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shimizu wins by more than 2.5 goals
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: jleague.jp
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox Sports, ESPN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Sanfrecce Hiroshima
  • Hiroshima wins by more than 1.5 goals
  • Hiroshima wins by more than 2.5 goals

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Sanfrecce Hiroshima for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Hiroshima vs Shimizu: Spread". Sanfrecce Hiroshima leads at 70%. Next is Hiroshima wins by more than 1.5 goals at 46%. $3K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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