The Prediction Markets

Hobart Lord Mayor election winner?

Closes
Oct 27, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

John Kelly 29.8%

Next is Bill Harvey at 17.8%. The venues differ most on Louise Bloomfield (Polymarket 9.9%, Kalshi 3%), a 6.9-point gap.

John Kelly 29.8%Bill Harvey 17.8%Charles Wooley 13.3%Marti Zucco 9.3%Harvey Lennon 7.7%6 others 22.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 9 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
John Kelly
29.8%
Polymarket 35.5%(28.9% fair)polled, 18s agoKalshi 35%(32% fair)polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Kelly
Last price
35.5%
Fair, margin removed
28.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Kelly
Last price
35%
Fair, margin removed
32%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$183
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Indicative only, prices are 9 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 33¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 38¢.

Bill Harvey
17.8%
Polymarket 22%(17.9% fair)polled, 18s agoKalshi 19%(17.4% fair)polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bill Harvey
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
17.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
18.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Harvey
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
17.4%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$666
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Indicative only, prices are 9 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 18.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 25¢.

Charles Wooley
13.3%
Kalshi 14.5%(13.2% fair)polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Wooley
Last price
14.5%
Fair, margin removed
13.2%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Marti Zucco
9.3%
Polymarket 10.8%(8.8% fair)polled, 18s agoKalshi 12%(11% fair)polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marti Zucco
Last price
10.8%
Fair, margin removed
8.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marti Zucco
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
11%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Indicative only, prices are 9 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.

Harvey Lennon
7.7%
Polymarket 10.7%(8.7% fair)polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harvey Lennon
Last price
10.7%
Fair, margin removed
8.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$462
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Harvey Lennon
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Indicative only, prices are 9 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Louise Bloomfield
5.4%
Polymarket 9.9%(8% fair)polled, 18s agoKalshi 3%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Louise Bloomfield
Last price
9.9%
Fair, margin removed
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$637 (6.37x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Louise Bloomfield
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Indicative only, prices are 9 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Mike Dutta
4.8%
Polymarket 5.7%(4.6% fair)polled, 18s agoKalshi 6%(5.5% fair)polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Dutta
Last price
5.7%
Fair, margin removed
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Dutta
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Indicative only, prices are 9 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Ryan Posselt
4.5%
Polymarket 4.8%(3.9% fair)polled, 18s agoKalshi 7%(6.4% fair)polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Posselt
Last price
4.8%
Fair, margin removed
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Posselt
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
6.4%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Indicative only, prices are 9 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8.6¢.

Rifatul Bari
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rifatul Bari
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jack McShane
2.3%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jack McShane
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tiffany Ashdown
2.3%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tiffany Ashdown
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: tec.tas.gov.au
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Tasmanian Electoral Commission
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • John Kelly
  • Bill Harvey
  • Charles Wooley

Live prices for John Kelly

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Hobart Lord Mayor election winner?". John Kelly leads at 29.8%. Next is Bill Harvey at 17.8%. $21K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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